Indofood CBP Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

PIFFY Stock  USD 15.38  0.00  0.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Indofood CBP Sukses on the next trading day is expected to be 16.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.72. Indofood Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Indofood CBP is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Indofood CBP Sukses value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Indofood CBP Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Indofood CBP Sukses on the next trading day is expected to be 16.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.72.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Indofood Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Indofood CBP's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Indofood CBP Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Indofood CBP Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Indofood CBP's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Indofood CBP's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.55 and 18.64, respectively. We have considered Indofood CBP's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
15.38
16.09
Expected Value
18.64
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Indofood CBP pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Indofood CBP pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.2625
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2904
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0212
SAESum of the absolute errors17.7156
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Indofood CBP Sukses. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Indofood CBP. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Indofood CBP

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Indofood CBP Sukses. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.8415.3817.92
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.1812.7216.92
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
15.3415.3415.34
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Indofood CBP. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Indofood CBP's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Indofood CBP's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Indofood CBP Sukses.

Other Forecasting Options for Indofood CBP

For every potential investor in Indofood, whether a beginner or expert, Indofood CBP's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Indofood Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Indofood. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Indofood CBP's price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Indofood CBP Sukses Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Indofood CBP's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Indofood CBP's current price.

Indofood CBP Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Indofood CBP pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Indofood CBP shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Indofood CBP pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Indofood CBP Sukses entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Indofood CBP Risk Indicators

The analysis of Indofood CBP's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Indofood CBP's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting indofood pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Additional Tools for Indofood Pink Sheet Analysis

When running Indofood CBP's price analysis, check to measure Indofood CBP's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Indofood CBP is operating at the current time. Most of Indofood CBP's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Indofood CBP's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Indofood CBP's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Indofood CBP to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.