PPLUS Trust Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

PYT Stock  USD 22.88  0.37  1.59%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of PPLUS Trust Series on the next trading day is expected to be 23.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.35. PPLUS Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for PPLUS Trust Series is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

PPLUS Trust 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 16th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of PPLUS Trust Series on the next trading day is expected to be 23.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.35.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PPLUS Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PPLUS Trust's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

PPLUS Trust Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest PPLUS TrustPPLUS Trust Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

PPLUS Trust Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting PPLUS Trust's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PPLUS Trust's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.95 and 24.18, respectively. We have considered PPLUS Trust's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
22.88
23.07
Expected Value
24.18
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PPLUS Trust stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PPLUS Trust stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria107.8441
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0125
MADMean absolute deviation0.1817
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0079
SAESum of the absolute errors10.355
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of PPLUS Trust. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for PPLUS Trust Series and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for PPLUS Trust

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PPLUS Trust Series. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PPLUS Trust's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
21.7722.8823.99
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
21.6022.7123.82
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
22.8323.1323.44
Details

Other Forecasting Options for PPLUS Trust

For every potential investor in PPLUS, whether a beginner or expert, PPLUS Trust's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PPLUS Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PPLUS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PPLUS Trust's price trends.

PPLUS Trust Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PPLUS Trust stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PPLUS Trust could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PPLUS Trust by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

PPLUS Trust Series Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of PPLUS Trust's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of PPLUS Trust's current price.

PPLUS Trust Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PPLUS Trust stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PPLUS Trust shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PPLUS Trust stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PPLUS Trust Series entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

PPLUS Trust Risk Indicators

The analysis of PPLUS Trust's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PPLUS Trust's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pplus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
Explore Investing Ideas  

Additional Tools for PPLUS Stock Analysis

When running PPLUS Trust's price analysis, check to measure PPLUS Trust's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PPLUS Trust is operating at the current time. Most of PPLUS Trust's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PPLUS Trust's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PPLUS Trust's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PPLUS Trust to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.