Singaraja Putra Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

SINI Stock  IDR 4,980  20.00  0.40%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Singaraja Putra on the next trading day is expected to be 4,980 with a mean absolute deviation of 196.72 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12,000. Singaraja Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Singaraja Putra simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Singaraja Putra are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Singaraja Putra prices get older.

Singaraja Putra Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Singaraja Putra on the next trading day is expected to be 4,980 with a mean absolute deviation of 196.72, mean absolute percentage error of 68,079, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12,000.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Singaraja Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Singaraja Putra's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Singaraja Putra Stock Forecast Pattern

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Singaraja Putra Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Singaraja Putra's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Singaraja Putra's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4,973 and 4,987, respectively. We have considered Singaraja Putra's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4,980
4,980
Expected Value
4,987
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Singaraja Putra stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Singaraja Putra stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria129.2389
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -48.8525
MADMean absolute deviation196.7213
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0503
SAESum of the absolute errors12000.0
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Singaraja Putra forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Singaraja Putra observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Singaraja Putra

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Singaraja Putra. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4,9935,0005,007
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3,8653,8725,500
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Singaraja Putra

For every potential investor in Singaraja, whether a beginner or expert, Singaraja Putra's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Singaraja Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Singaraja. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Singaraja Putra's price trends.

Singaraja Putra Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Singaraja Putra stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Singaraja Putra could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Singaraja Putra by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Singaraja Putra Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Singaraja Putra's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Singaraja Putra's current price.

Singaraja Putra Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Singaraja Putra stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Singaraja Putra shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Singaraja Putra stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Singaraja Putra entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Singaraja Putra Risk Indicators

The analysis of Singaraja Putra's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Singaraja Putra's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting singaraja stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Singaraja Stock

Singaraja Putra financial ratios help investors to determine whether Singaraja Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Singaraja with respect to the benefits of owning Singaraja Putra security.