Bancorp Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

TBBK Stock  USD 57.79  1.04  1.83%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 58.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.25. Bancorp Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Bancorp works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Bancorp Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 58.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.34, mean absolute percentage error of 4.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.25.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bancorp Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern

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Bancorp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 54.30 and 61.72, respectively. We have considered Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
57.79
58.01
Expected Value
61.72
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.2867
MADMean absolute deviation1.3433
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0251
SAESum of the absolute errors79.2541
When The Bancorp prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any The Bancorp trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Bancorp observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Bancorp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
53.6457.3361.02
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
42.9946.6863.57
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
55.2557.0258.80
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bancorp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bancorp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bancorp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Bancorp.

Other Forecasting Options for Bancorp

For every potential investor in Bancorp, whether a beginner or expert, Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bancorp Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bancorp. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bancorp's price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bancorp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bancorp's current price.

Bancorp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify The Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bancorp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bancorp stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Bancorp is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Bancorp Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about The Bancorp Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about The Bancorp Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bancorp. If investors know Bancorp will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bancorp that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.