Bancorp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

TBBK Stock  USD 57.56  0.68  1.20%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of The Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 54.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 111.42. Bancorp Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Bancorp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Bancorp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Bancorp fundamentals over time.
  
Payables Turnover is expected to rise to 23.56 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to (0.0005). . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to rise to about 157.2 M this year, although the value of Common Stock Shares Outstanding will most likely fall to about 35.6 M.

Bancorp Cash Forecast

To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Bancorp's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2003-12-31
Previous Quarter
405.6 M
Current Value
55.8 M
Quarterly Volatility
425.4 M
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Bancorp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of The Bancorp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Bancorp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 10th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of The Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 54.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.83, mean absolute percentage error of 5.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 111.42.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bancorp Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest BancorpBancorp Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Bancorp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 50.58 and 57.94, respectively. We have considered Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
57.56
54.26
Expected Value
57.94
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.7817
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.8265
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.034
SAESum of the absolute errors111.418
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of The Bancorp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Bancorp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Bancorp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
53.9057.5661.22
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
43.0646.7263.32
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
52.0856.4960.90
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
40.9545.0049.95
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bancorp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bancorp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bancorp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Bancorp.

Other Forecasting Options for Bancorp

For every potential investor in Bancorp, whether a beginner or expert, Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bancorp Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bancorp. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bancorp's price trends.

View Bancorp Related Equities

 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bancorp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bancorp's current price.

Bancorp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify The Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bancorp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bancorp stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!

The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.

Try AI Portfolio Architect
When determining whether Bancorp is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Bancorp Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about The Bancorp Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about The Bancorp Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bancorp. If investors know Bancorp will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.13
Earnings Share
3.96
Revenue Per Share
9.168
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.075
Return On Assets
0.0264
The market value of Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bancorp that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.