Temapol Polimer Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

TMPOL Stock  TRY 70.10  1.40  1.96%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Temapol Polimer Plastik on the next trading day is expected to be 72.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 91.87. Temapol Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Temapol Polimer's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Temapol Polimer is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Temapol Polimer Plastik value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Temapol Polimer Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Temapol Polimer Plastik on the next trading day is expected to be 72.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.51, mean absolute percentage error of 3.62, and the sum of the absolute errors of 91.87.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Temapol Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Temapol Polimer's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Temapol Polimer Stock Forecast Pattern

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Temapol Polimer Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Temapol Polimer's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Temapol Polimer's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 70.43 and 75.49, respectively. We have considered Temapol Polimer's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
70.10
72.96
Expected Value
75.49
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Temapol Polimer stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Temapol Polimer stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.3976
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.5061
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0227
SAESum of the absolute errors91.8736
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Temapol Polimer Plastik. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Temapol Polimer. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Temapol Polimer

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Temapol Polimer Plastik. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
67.5770.1072.63
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
64.3266.8577.11
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
67.6969.4171.14
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Temapol Polimer

For every potential investor in Temapol, whether a beginner or expert, Temapol Polimer's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Temapol Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Temapol. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Temapol Polimer's price trends.

Temapol Polimer Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Temapol Polimer stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Temapol Polimer could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Temapol Polimer by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Temapol Polimer Plastik Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Temapol Polimer's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Temapol Polimer's current price.

Temapol Polimer Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Temapol Polimer stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Temapol Polimer shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Temapol Polimer stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Temapol Polimer Plastik entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Temapol Polimer Risk Indicators

The analysis of Temapol Polimer's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Temapol Polimer's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting temapol stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Other Information on Investing in Temapol Stock

Temapol Polimer financial ratios help investors to determine whether Temapol Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Temapol with respect to the benefits of owning Temapol Polimer security.