Ultra Jaya Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

ULTJ Stock  IDR 1,750  10.00  0.57%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Ultra Jaya Milk on the next trading day is expected to be 1,708 with a mean absolute deviation of 44.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,759. Ultra Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Ultra Jaya price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Ultra Jaya Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Ultra Jaya Milk on the next trading day is expected to be 1,708 with a mean absolute deviation of 44.49, mean absolute percentage error of 2,580, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,759.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ultra Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ultra Jaya's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ultra Jaya Stock Forecast Pattern

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Ultra Jaya Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ultra Jaya's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ultra Jaya's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,707 and 1,710, respectively. We have considered Ultra Jaya's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1,750
1,708
Expected Value
1,710
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ultra Jaya stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ultra Jaya stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria127.8038
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation44.4933
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.025
SAESum of the absolute errors2758.5863
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Ultra Jaya Milk historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Ultra Jaya

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ultra Jaya Milk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1,7481,7501,752
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1,4851,4871,925
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
1,6591,7581,857
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Ultra Jaya

For every potential investor in Ultra, whether a beginner or expert, Ultra Jaya's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ultra Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ultra. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ultra Jaya's price trends.

Ultra Jaya Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ultra Jaya stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ultra Jaya could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ultra Jaya by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ultra Jaya Milk Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ultra Jaya's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ultra Jaya's current price.

Ultra Jaya Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ultra Jaya stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ultra Jaya shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ultra Jaya stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ultra Jaya Milk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ultra Jaya Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ultra Jaya's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ultra Jaya's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ultra stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Ultra Stock

Ultra Jaya financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ultra Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ultra with respect to the benefits of owning Ultra Jaya security.