Umicore SA Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| UMI Stock | EUR 9.86 0.16 1.65% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Umicore SA on the next trading day is expected to be 9.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.65. Umicore Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Umicore |
Umicore SA Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 22nd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Umicore SA on the next trading day is expected to be 9.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.65.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Umicore Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Umicore SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Umicore SA Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Umicore SA | Umicore SA Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Umicore SA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Umicore SA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Umicore SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.88 and 11.32, respectively. We have considered Umicore SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Umicore SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Umicore SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.3453 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2363 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.022 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.6524 |
Predictive Modules for Umicore SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Umicore SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Umicore SA
For every potential investor in Umicore, whether a beginner or expert, Umicore SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Umicore Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Umicore. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Umicore SA's price trends.Umicore SA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Umicore SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Umicore SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Umicore SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Umicore SA Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Umicore SA's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Umicore SA's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Umicore SA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Umicore SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Umicore SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Umicore SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Umicore SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Umicore SA Risk Indicators
The analysis of Umicore SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Umicore SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting umicore stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.23 | |||
| Variance | 4.96 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Umicore SA
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Umicore SA position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Umicore SA will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Umicore Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Umicore SA could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Umicore SA when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Umicore SA - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Umicore SA to buy it.
The correlation of Umicore SA is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Umicore SA moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Umicore SA moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Umicore SA can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Umicore Stock Analysis
When running Umicore SA's price analysis, check to measure Umicore SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Umicore SA is operating at the current time. Most of Umicore SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Umicore SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Umicore SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Umicore SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.