Union Bankshares Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

UNB Stock  USD 33.95  1.65  4.63%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Union Bankshares on the next trading day is expected to be 33.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.76. Union Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Union Bankshares stock prices and determine the direction of Union Bankshares's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Union Bankshares' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Union Bankshares' Fixed Asset Turnover is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 0.04, whereas Receivables Turnover is forecasted to decline to 8.68. . As of December 15, 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to decline to about 3.6 M. In addition to that, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to decline to about 8 M.
Triple exponential smoothing for Union Bankshares - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Union Bankshares prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Union Bankshares price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Union Bankshares.

Union Bankshares Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 16th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Union Bankshares on the next trading day is expected to be 33.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59, mean absolute percentage error of 0.65, and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.76.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Union Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Union Bankshares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Union Bankshares Stock Forecast Pattern

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Union Bankshares Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Union Bankshares' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Union Bankshares' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.27 and 36.33, respectively. We have considered Union Bankshares' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
33.95
33.80
Expected Value
36.33
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Union Bankshares stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Union Bankshares stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0838
MADMean absolute deviation0.5891
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0193
SAESum of the absolute errors34.7576
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Union Bankshares observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Union Bankshares observations.

Predictive Modules for Union Bankshares

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Union Bankshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
31.3433.8936.44
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
30.5638.4340.98
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
26.9832.4537.92
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Union Bankshares

For every potential investor in Union, whether a beginner or expert, Union Bankshares' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Union Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Union. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Union Bankshares' price trends.

Union Bankshares Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Union Bankshares stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Union Bankshares could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Union Bankshares by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Union Bankshares Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Union Bankshares' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Union Bankshares' current price.

Union Bankshares Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Union Bankshares stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Union Bankshares shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Union Bankshares stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Union Bankshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Union Bankshares Risk Indicators

The analysis of Union Bankshares' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Union Bankshares' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting union stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When determining whether Union Bankshares offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Union Bankshares' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Union Bankshares Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Union Bankshares Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Union Bankshares to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Union Stock refer to our How to Trade Union Stock guide.
You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Union Bankshares. If investors know Union will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Union Bankshares listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.47)
Dividend Share
1.44
Earnings Share
1.94
Revenue Per Share
10.244
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.1)
The market value of Union Bankshares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Union that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Union Bankshares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Union Bankshares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Union Bankshares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Union Bankshares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Union Bankshares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Union Bankshares is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Union Bankshares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.