049560AX3 Forecast - Naive Prediction

049560AX3   102.45  0.13  0.13%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ATO 545 15 OCT 32 on the next trading day is expected to be 103.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.78. 049560AX3 Bond Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast 049560AX3 stock prices and determine the direction of ATO 545 15 OCT 32's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of 049560AX3's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for 049560AX3 is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of ATO 545 15 OCT 32 value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

049560AX3 Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ATO 545 15 OCT 32 on the next trading day is expected to be 103.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58, mean absolute percentage error of 0.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.78.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict 049560AX3 Bond prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that 049560AX3's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

049560AX3 Bond Forecast Pattern

JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Jul 16Jul 26Aug 9Aug 29Sep 23Oct 28Dec 3Dec 25Next 2102104106108
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15ATO 545 15 ATO 545 15 forecast

049560AX3 Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting 049560AX3's Bond value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. 049560AX3's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 102.50 and 103.75, respectively. We have considered 049560AX3's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
102.45
102.50
Downside
103.12
Expected Value
103.75
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of 049560AX3 bond data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent 049560AX3 bond, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.3514
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.5771
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0055
SAESum of the absolute errors35.7806
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ATO 545 15 OCT 32. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict 049560AX3. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for 049560AX3

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ATO 545 15. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
101.83102.45103.07
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
86.0586.67112.70
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as 049560AX3. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against 049560AX3's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, 049560AX3's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in ATO 545 15.

Other Forecasting Options for 049560AX3

For every potential investor in 049560AX3, whether a beginner or expert, 049560AX3's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. 049560AX3 Bond price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in 049560AX3. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying 049560AX3's price trends.

049560AX3 Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with 049560AX3 bond to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of 049560AX3 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing 049560AX3 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ATO 545 15 Technical and Predictive Analytics

The bond market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of 049560AX3's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of 049560AX3's current price.

049560AX3 Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how 049560AX3 bond reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading 049560AX3 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying 049560AX3 bond market strength indicators, traders can identify ATO 545 15 OCT 32 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

049560AX3 Risk Indicators

The analysis of 049560AX3's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in 049560AX3's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting 049560ax3 bond prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios. One of the essential factors to consider when estimating the risk of default for a bond instrument is its duration, which is the bond's price sensitivity to changes in interest rates. The duration of ATO 545 15 OCT 32 bond is primarily affected by its yield, coupon rate, and time to maturity. The duration of a bond will be higher the lower its coupon, lower its yield, and longer the time left to maturity.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in 049560AX3 Bond

049560AX3 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 049560AX3 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 049560AX3 with respect to the benefits of owning 049560AX3 security.

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