KEYBANK Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

49327V2A1   95.46  2.19  2.24%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of KEYBANK NATL ASSN on the next trading day is expected to be 95.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.67. KEYBANK Bond Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast KEYBANK stock prices and determine the direction of KEYBANK NATL ASSN's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of KEYBANK's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for KEYBANK - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When KEYBANK prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in KEYBANK price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of KEYBANK NATL ASSN.

KEYBANK Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of KEYBANK NATL ASSN on the next trading day is expected to be 95.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34, mean absolute percentage error of 0.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.67.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict KEYBANK Bond prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that KEYBANK's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

KEYBANK Bond Forecast Pattern

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KEYBANK Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting KEYBANK's Bond value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. KEYBANK's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 94.87 and 95.75, respectively. We have considered KEYBANK's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
95.46
95.31
Expected Value
95.75
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of KEYBANK bond data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent KEYBANK bond, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1133
MADMean absolute deviation0.3446
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0036
SAESum of the absolute errors20.6742
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past KEYBANK observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older KEYBANK NATL ASSN observations.

Predictive Modules for KEYBANK

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as KEYBANK NATL ASSN. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
95.0295.4695.90
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
95.1795.6196.05
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as KEYBANK. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against KEYBANK's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, KEYBANK's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in KEYBANK NATL ASSN.

Other Forecasting Options for KEYBANK

For every potential investor in KEYBANK, whether a beginner or expert, KEYBANK's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. KEYBANK Bond price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in KEYBANK. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying KEYBANK's price trends.

KEYBANK Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with KEYBANK bond to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of KEYBANK could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing KEYBANK by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

KEYBANK NATL ASSN Technical and Predictive Analytics

The bond market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of KEYBANK's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of KEYBANK's current price.

KEYBANK Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how KEYBANK bond reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading KEYBANK shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying KEYBANK bond market strength indicators, traders can identify KEYBANK NATL ASSN entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

KEYBANK Risk Indicators

The analysis of KEYBANK's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in KEYBANK's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting keybank bond prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios. One of the essential factors to consider when estimating the risk of default for a bond instrument is its duration, which is the bond's price sensitivity to changes in interest rates. The duration of KEYBANK NATL ASSN bond is primarily affected by its yield, coupon rate, and time to maturity. The duration of a bond will be higher the lower its coupon, lower its yield, and longer the time left to maturity.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in KEYBANK Bond

KEYBANK financial ratios help investors to determine whether KEYBANK Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in KEYBANK with respect to the benefits of owning KEYBANK security.