VONOVIA SE Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

VNAA Stock  EUR 14.10  0.10  0.70%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of VONOVIA SE ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 14.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.65. VONOVIA Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of VONOVIA SE's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A two period moving average forecast for VONOVIA SE is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

VONOVIA SE Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 23rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of VONOVIA SE ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 14.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.65.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VONOVIA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VONOVIA SE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

VONOVIA SE Stock Forecast Pattern

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VONOVIA SE Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting VONOVIA SE's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. VONOVIA SE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.17 and 16.03, respectively. We have considered VONOVIA SE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
14.10
14.10
Expected Value
16.03
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VONOVIA SE stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VONOVIA SE stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.0524
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0534
MADMean absolute deviation0.2483
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0164
SAESum of the absolute errors14.65
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of VONOVIA SE ADR price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of VONOVIA SE. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for VONOVIA SE

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VONOVIA SE ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.1714.1016.03
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.7413.6715.60
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as VONOVIA SE. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against VONOVIA SE's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, VONOVIA SE's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in VONOVIA SE ADR.

Other Forecasting Options for VONOVIA SE

For every potential investor in VONOVIA, whether a beginner or expert, VONOVIA SE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. VONOVIA Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in VONOVIA. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying VONOVIA SE's price trends.

VONOVIA SE Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VONOVIA SE stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VONOVIA SE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VONOVIA SE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

VONOVIA SE ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of VONOVIA SE's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of VONOVIA SE's current price.

VONOVIA SE Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VONOVIA SE stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VONOVIA SE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying VONOVIA SE stock market strength indicators, traders can identify VONOVIA SE ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

VONOVIA SE Risk Indicators

The analysis of VONOVIA SE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VONOVIA SE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vonovia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Other Information on Investing in VONOVIA Stock

VONOVIA SE financial ratios help investors to determine whether VONOVIA Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in VONOVIA with respect to the benefits of owning VONOVIA SE security.