Graphic Packaging (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 27.88
| 4W8 Stock | EUR 27.84 0.10 0.36% |
Graphic |
Graphic Packaging Target Price Odds to finish below 27.88
The tendency of Graphic Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 27.88 after 90 days |
| 27.84 | 90 days | 27.88 | about 88.41 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Graphic Packaging to stay under € 27.88 after 90 days from now is about 88.41 (This Graphic Packaging Holding probability density function shows the probability of Graphic Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Graphic Packaging Holding price to stay between its current price of € 27.84 and € 27.88 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Graphic Packaging Holding has a beta of -0.0488. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Graphic Packaging are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Graphic Packaging Holding is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Graphic Packaging Holding has an alpha of 0.073, implying that it can generate a 0.073 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Graphic Packaging Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Graphic Packaging
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Graphic Packaging Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Graphic Packaging Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Graphic Packaging is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Graphic Packaging's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Graphic Packaging Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Graphic Packaging within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.83 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
Graphic Packaging Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Graphic Packaging for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Graphic Packaging Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Graphic Packaging has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds |
Graphic Packaging Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Graphic Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Graphic Packaging's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Graphic Packaging's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 307.1 M |
Graphic Packaging Technical Analysis
Graphic Packaging's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Graphic Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Graphic Packaging Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Graphic Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Graphic Packaging Predictive Forecast Models
Graphic Packaging's time-series forecasting models is one of many Graphic Packaging's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Graphic Packaging's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Graphic Packaging Holding
Checking the ongoing alerts about Graphic Packaging for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Graphic Packaging Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Graphic Packaging has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Graphic Stock
When determining whether Graphic Packaging Holding is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Graphic Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Graphic Packaging Holding Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Graphic Packaging Holding Stock:Check out Graphic Packaging Backtesting, Graphic Packaging Valuation, Graphic Packaging Correlation, Graphic Packaging Hype Analysis, Graphic Packaging Volatility, Graphic Packaging History as well as Graphic Packaging Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.