Agf American Growth Fund Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Over 72.25
| AGF5036 Fund | 72.25 0.65 0.89% |
AGF |
AGF American Target Price Odds to finish over 72.25
The tendency of AGF Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 72.25 | 90 days | 72.25 | about 21.34 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AGF American to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 21.34 (This AGF American Growth probability density function shows the probability of AGF Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon AGF American has a beta of 0.0567. This suggests as returns on the market go up, AGF American average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AGF American Growth will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AGF American Growth has an alpha of 0.1895, implying that it can generate a 0.19 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). AGF American Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for AGF American
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AGF American Growth. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AGF American Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AGF American is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AGF American's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AGF American Growth, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AGF American within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.19 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.31 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.18 |
AGF American Technical Analysis
AGF American's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AGF Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AGF American Growth. In general, you should focus on analyzing AGF Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AGF American Predictive Forecast Models
AGF American's time-series forecasting models is one of many AGF American's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AGF American's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards AGF American in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, AGF American's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from AGF American options trading.
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