Cogelec SA (France) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 9.82
| ALLEC Stock | EUR 15.10 0.40 2.58% |
Cogelec |
Cogelec SA Target Price Odds to finish below 9.82
The tendency of Cogelec Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 9.82 or more in 90 days |
| 15.10 | 90 days | 9.82 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cogelec SA to drop to € 9.82 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Cogelec SA probability density function shows the probability of Cogelec Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cogelec SA price to stay between € 9.82 and its current price of €15.1 at the end of the 90-day period is about 55.24 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Cogelec SA has a beta of 0.15. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Cogelec SA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Cogelec SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Cogelec SA has an alpha of 0.4085, implying that it can generate a 0.41 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Cogelec SA Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Cogelec SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cogelec SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cogelec SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cogelec SA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cogelec SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cogelec SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cogelec SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cogelec SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.41 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.36 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.19 |
Cogelec SA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cogelec SA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cogelec SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company reported the revenue of 51.55 M. Net Loss for the year was (3.28 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 33.46 M. | |
| About 60.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Cogelec SA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cogelec Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cogelec SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cogelec SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 31.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 18.8 M |
Cogelec SA Technical Analysis
Cogelec SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cogelec Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cogelec SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cogelec Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cogelec SA Predictive Forecast Models
Cogelec SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Cogelec SA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cogelec SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Cogelec SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Cogelec SA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cogelec SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company reported the revenue of 51.55 M. Net Loss for the year was (3.28 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 33.46 M. | |
| About 60.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for Cogelec Stock Analysis
When running Cogelec SA's price analysis, check to measure Cogelec SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cogelec SA is operating at the current time. Most of Cogelec SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cogelec SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cogelec SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cogelec SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.