Eli Lilly (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 728.81
| LLY Stock | 749.40 3.40 0.46% |
Eli |
Eli Lilly Target Price Odds to finish below 728.81
The tendency of Eli Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 728.81 or more in 90 days |
| 749.40 | 90 days | 728.81 | about 9.75 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Eli Lilly to drop to 728.81 or more in 90 days from now is about 9.75 (This Eli Lilly and probability density function shows the probability of Eli Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Eli Lilly price to stay between 728.81 and its current price of 749.4 at the end of the 90-day period is about 10.64 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Eli Lilly has a beta of 0.76. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Eli Lilly average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Eli Lilly and will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Eli Lilly and has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Eli Lilly Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Eli Lilly
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Eli Lilly. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Eli Lilly's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Eli Lilly Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Eli Lilly is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Eli Lilly's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Eli Lilly and, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Eli Lilly within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.2 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.76 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 44.19 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Eli Lilly Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Eli Lilly for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Eli Lilly can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Eli Lilly generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 84.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Eli Lilly Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Eli Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Eli Lilly's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Eli Lilly's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 957.5 M |
Eli Lilly Technical Analysis
Eli Lilly's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Eli Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Eli Lilly and. In general, you should focus on analyzing Eli Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Eli Lilly Predictive Forecast Models
Eli Lilly's time-series forecasting models is one of many Eli Lilly's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Eli Lilly's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Eli Lilly
Checking the ongoing alerts about Eli Lilly for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Eli Lilly help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Eli Lilly generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 84.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Tools for Eli Stock Analysis
When running Eli Lilly's price analysis, check to measure Eli Lilly's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Eli Lilly is operating at the current time. Most of Eli Lilly's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Eli Lilly's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Eli Lilly's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Eli Lilly to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.