Origin Energy (Australia) Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| ORG Stock | 10.89 0.08 0.74% |
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon and complete risk avoidance on your part, our recommendation regarding Origin Energy is 'Strong Sell'. A buy or sell recommendation is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Origin Energy given historical horizon and risk tolerance. When we issue a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Origin Energy, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Check out Origin Energy Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Origin and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' constraints. Origin Energy. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.
Origin |
Execute Origin Energy Buy or Sell Advice
The Origin recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Origin Energy. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Origin Energy or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Origin Energy's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Sell
Market Performance | OK | Details | |
Volatility | Not too volatile | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Overvalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Very Small | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Almost neglects market trends | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Not Available | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Inapplicable | Details |
Origin Energy Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Origin Energy is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years |
Origin Energy Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Origin Energy's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Origin Energy's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Origin Energy daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Origin Energy price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Origin Energy returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Origin Energy.
| Mean Return | 0.1 | Value At Risk | -2.07 | Potential Upside | 1.85 | Standard Deviation | 1.13 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Origin Energy historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Origin Energy Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | (306M) | (768M) | 148M | (157M) | 162M | 170.1M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 576M | 793M | 195M | (1.1B) | 461M | 484.1M | |
| Depreciation | 379M | 378M | 299M | 396M | 534M | 414.3M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 489M | 2.9B | 1.7B | (2.1B) | 618M | 340.2M | |
| Dividends Paid | 478M | 343M | 314M | 576M | 819M | 860.0M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 375M | 171M | 336M | 475M | 608M | 828.1M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 1.2B | 472M | 620M | 463M | 625M | 500.9M | |
| Net Income | 83M | (2.3B) | (1.4B) | 1.1B | 1.4B | 1.5B | |
| Change To Inventory | 58M | (26M) | 50M | (68M) | (40M) | (38M) | |
| Investments | 943M | 438M | 988M | 1.2B | (16M) | (15.2M) | |
| Net Borrowings | (1.2B) | (1.1B) | (1.9B) | (286M) | (257.4M) | (270.3M) | |
| Change To Netincome | 136M | 2.7B | 953M | (636M) | (572.4M) | (543.8M) |
Origin Energy Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Origin Energy or Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Origin Energy's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Origin stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.0021 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
Origin Energy Volatility Alert
Origin Energy has relatively low volatility with skewness of -0.14 and kurtosis of -0.18. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Origin Energy's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Origin Energy's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Origin Energy Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Origin Energy's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Origin Energy's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Origin Energy and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Origin Energy or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Origin Energy's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Origin Energy by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Origin Energy to competition |
| Fundamentals | Origin Energy | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.15 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0302 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.09 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.03 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 20.62 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 1.72 B | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.75 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 45.14 % | 39.21 % |
| Price To Book | 1.96 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 1.16 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 16.18 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 297 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 1.78 B | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 1.4 B | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 463 M | 2.7 B |
| Total Debt | 3.38 B | 5.32 B |
| Book Value Per Share | 5.52 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 1.11 B | 971.22 M |
| Earnings Per Share | 0.81 X | 3.12 X |
| Target Price | 10.27 | |
| Number Of Employees | 5.62 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.22 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 18.76 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 20.45 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (1.83 B) | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 433 M | 1.48 B |
| Annual Yield | 0.05 % | |
| Net Asset | 20.45 B | |
| Last Dividend Paid | 0.55 |
Origin Energy Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Origin . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 11756.3 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.4444 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 10.81 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 10.84 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.12 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.08 |
About Origin Energy Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Origin Energy? Buying financial instruments such as Origin Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
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Additional Tools for Origin Stock Analysis
When running Origin Energy's price analysis, check to measure Origin Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Origin Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Origin Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Origin Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Origin Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Origin Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.