Origin Energy (Australia) Price Prediction
| ORG Stock | 10.89 0.08 0.74% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
55
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.38) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.75 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.85 | Wall Street Target Price 10.2692 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.055 |
Using Origin Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Origin Energy from the perspective of Origin Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Origin Energy to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Origin because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Origin Energy after-hype prediction price | AUD 10.91 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Origin |
Origin Energy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Origin Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Origin Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Origin Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Origin Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Origin Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Origin Energy's historical news coverage. Origin Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.77 and 12.05, respectively. We have considered Origin Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Origin Energy is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Origin Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Origin Energy Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Origin Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Origin Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Origin Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 1.14 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 1 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
10.89 | 10.91 | 0.18 |
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Origin Energy Hype Timeline
Origin Energy is now traded for 10.89on Australian Securities Exchange of Australia. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Origin is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 10.91 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is anticipated to be 0.18%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.13%. The volatility of related hype on Origin Energy is about 899.21%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.87. The company reported the revenue of 16.18 B. Net Income was 1.4 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 297 M. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be very soon. Check out Origin Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Origin Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Origin Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Origin Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Origin Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Origin Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WBCPJ | Westpac Banking | (0.03) | 3 per month | 0.15 | (0.12) | 0.39 | (0.37) | 1.27 | |
| ASK | ABACUS STORAGE KING | 0.01 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.63 | (1.71) | 6.25 | |
| ODY | Odyssey Energy | 0.00 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 10.00 | (9.09) | 31.82 | |
| RPL | Regal Funds Management | 0.03 | 4 per month | 2.04 | (0.0004) | 4.08 | (3.18) | 10.83 | |
| YAL | Yancoal Australia | 0.03 | 1 per month | 1.51 | 0.07 | 3.12 | (2.87) | 8.71 | |
| SGM | Sims | 0.12 | 1 per month | 1.58 | (0.02) | 3.43 | (2.38) | 8.95 | |
| AME | Alto Metals | (0) | 3 per month | 1.79 | 0.22 | 5.06 | (3.80) | 13.62 | |
| MME | MoneyMe | 0.01 | 2 per month | 4.24 | 0.1 | 9.09 | (8.33) | 35.61 | |
| HUB | Hub24 | (1.31) | 3 per month | 1.60 | 0.16 | 2.37 | (2.04) | 9.09 |
Origin Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Origin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Origin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Origin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Origin Energy Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Origin Energy stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Origin Energy, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Origin Energy based on analysis of Origin Energy hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Origin Energy's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Origin Energy's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Origin Energy
The number of cover stories for Origin Energy depends on current market conditions and Origin Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Origin Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Origin Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Origin Energy Short Properties
Origin Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Origin Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Origin Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Origin Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Origin Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.7 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.4 B |
Additional Tools for Origin Stock Analysis
When running Origin Energy's price analysis, check to measure Origin Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Origin Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Origin Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Origin Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Origin Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Origin Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.