Ontrak Inc Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| OTRK Stock | USD 1.75 0.05 2.78% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Ontrak Inc is 'Strong Sell'. The recommendation algorithm takes into account all of Ontrak's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
Check out Ontrak Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Ontrak and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' constraints. Ontrak Inc. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in metropolitan statistical area.
Ontrak |
Execute Ontrak Buy or Sell Advice
The Ontrak recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Ontrak Inc. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Ontrak Inc or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Ontrak's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Sell
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Dangerous | Details | |
Hype Condition | Over hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Very High | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Follows the market closely | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Poor | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Ontrak Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Ontrak Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Ontrak Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Ontrak Inc may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Ontrak Inc has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 12.74 M. Net Loss for the year was (27.92 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 7.05 M. | |
| Ontrak Inc currently holds about 10.05 M in cash with (15.5 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.39. | |
| Ontrak Inc has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 46.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: ARMISTICE CAPITAL, LLC Acquires New Stake in Ontrak Inc |
Ontrak Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Ontrak's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Ontrak's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Ontrak daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Ontrak Inc price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Ontrak returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Ontrak.
| Mean Return | -0.59 | Value At Risk | -7.61 | Potential Upside | 5.91 | Standard Deviation | 8.16 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Ontrak historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Ontrak Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Royal Bank Of Canada | 2024-06-30 | 7.0 | Capital Advisors, Ltd. Llc | 2024-09-30 | 5.0 | Comerica Bank | 2024-09-30 | 4.0 | Bnp Paribas Arbitrage, Sa | 2024-09-30 | 2.0 | Richard W Paul & Associates Llc | 2024-09-30 | 2.0 | State Street Corp | 2024-09-30 | 0.0 | Wells Fargo & Co | 2024-06-30 | 0.0 | Advisor Group Holdings, Inc. | 2024-06-30 | 0.0 | Xtx Topco Ltd | 2024-06-30 | 0.0 | Jane Street Group Llc | 2024-06-30 | 19.2 K | Blackrock Inc | 2024-06-30 | 15.8 K |
Ontrak Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 10.4M | 89.2M | (37.3M) | (56.2M) | (12K) | (11.4K) | |
| Free Cash Flow | (16.9M) | (8.0M) | (30.6M) | (25.1M) | (15.8M) | (16.6M) | |
| Depreciation | 829K | 1.9M | 4.0M | 5.2M | 6.4M | 6.7M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 1.5M | 5.4M | 7.6M | 4.7M | 3.7M | 2.0M | |
| Net Income | (25.7M) | (22.7M) | (37.1M) | (51.6M) | (27.9M) | (29.3M) | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 14.0M | 103.2M | 65.9M | 9.7M | 9.7M | 12.7M | |
| Investments | (14K) | (4.6M) | (4.5M) | (1.2M) | (348K) | (365.4K) | |
| Net Borrowings | 29.1M | 9.8M | (11.1M) | (28.5M) | (25.6M) | (24.3M) | |
| Change To Netincome | 5.3M | 12.9M | 20.4M | 8.9M | 10.3M | 9.0M |
Ontrak Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Ontrak or Health Care Providers & Services sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Ontrak's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Ontrak stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.67 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.68 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.21 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Ontrak Volatility Alert
Ontrak Inc is displaying above-average volatility over the selected time horizon. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Ontrak's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Ontrak's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Ontrak Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Ontrak's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Ontrak's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Ontrak and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Ontrak or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Ontrak's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ontrak by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Ontrak to competition |
| Fundamentals | Ontrak | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | -3.41 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | -0.45 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | (2.23) % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | (1.65) % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 7.52 M | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 4.22 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 45.97 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 0.21 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 52.84 K | 4.71 M |
| Price To Book | 0.64 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.60 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 12.74 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 7.05 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | (14.42 M) | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | (27.92 M) | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 10.05 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 0.39 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 1.69 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.44 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 2.72 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 5.57 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | (15.5 M) | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 0.01 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 31.91 X | 3.12 X |
| Target Price | 4.0 | |
| Number Of Employees | 102 | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 2.6 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 7.38 M | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 19.85 M | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (470.66 M) | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 8.84 M | 1.48 B |
| Net Asset | 19.85 M |
Note: Disposition of 173 shares by Sherman Michael Edward of Ontrak at 1.77 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Ontrak Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Ontrak . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Ontrak Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Ontrak Inc? Buying financial instruments such as Ontrak Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Ontrak in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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Check out Ontrak Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Is Health Care Providers & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ontrak. If investors know Ontrak will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ontrak listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share 31.91 | Revenue Per Share 4.585 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.17) | Return On Assets (0.45) | Return On Equity (3.41) |
The market value of Ontrak Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ontrak that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ontrak's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ontrak's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ontrak's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ontrak's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ontrak's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ontrak is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ontrak's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.