Is Ontrak Stock a Good Investment?
Ontrak Investment Advice | OTRK |
- Examine Ontrak's financial health by looking at its balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement. Analyze key financial ratios, such as Price-to-Earnings (P/E), Price-to-Sales (P/S), and Price-to-Book (P/B), to determine whether the stock is fairly valued or over/undervalued.
- Research Ontrak's leadership team and their track record. Good management can help Ontrak navigate difficult times and make strategic decisions that benefit shareholders and increases its net worth.
- Consider the overall health of the Health Care Providers & Services space and any emerging trends that could impact Ontrak's business and its evolving consumer preferences.
- Compare Ontrak's performance and market position to its competitors. Analyze how Ontrak is positioned in terms of product offerings, innovation, and market share.
- Check if Ontrak pays a dividend and its dividend yield and payout ratio.
- Review what financial analysts are saying about Ontrak's stock and their price targets. However, remember that analysts' opinions can vary, and their predictions may not always be accurate.
It's important to note that investing in Ontrak Inc stock, carries risks, and you should carefully consider your investment goals and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Also, remember that it's important for investors to have a long-term perspective and a well-diversified portfolio to manage the impact of stock market volatility on their investments. Below is a detailed guide on how to decide if Ontrak Inc is a good investment.
Sell | Buy |
Strong Sell
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Extremely Dangerous | Details | |
Hype Condition | Stale | Details | |
Current Valuation | Overvalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Very High | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Very regressive towards the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unavailable | Details |
Examine Ontrak Stock
Researching Ontrak's stock involves analyzing various aspects of the company and its industry to make an informed investment decision. The key areas to focus on are fundamentals, business model and competitive advantage. It is also important to analyze trends in revenue, net income, and cash flow, as well as key financial ratios, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and debt-to-equity (D/E). About 46.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.66. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Ontrak Inc recorded earning per share (EPS) of 31.91. The entity last dividend was issued on the 25th of April 2017. The firm had 1:15 split on the 23rd of September 2024.
To determine if Ontrak is a good investment, evaluating the company's potential for future growth is also very important. This may include expanding into new markets, launching new products or services, or improving operational efficiency. Companies with strong growth prospects can be more attractive investments. This aspect of the research should be conducted in the context of the overall market and industry in which the company operates and should include an analysis of growth potential, competitive landscape, and any regulatory or economic factors that could impact the business. Some of the essential points regarding Ontrak's research are outlined below:
| Ontrak Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Ontrak Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Ontrak Inc may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Ontrak Inc has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 12.74 M. Net Loss for the year was (27.92 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 7.05 M. | |
| Ontrak Inc currently holds about 10.05 M in cash with (15.5 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.39. | |
| Roughly 46.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: ARMISTICE CAPITAL, LLC Acquires New Stake in Ontrak Inc |
Ontrak Quarterly Cash And Short Term Investments |
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Ontrak uses earnings reports to provide investors with an update of all three financial statements, including the income statement, the balance sheet, and the cash flow statement. Therefore, it is also crucial when considering investing in Ontrak Inc. Every quarterly earnings report provides investors with an overview of sales, expenses, and net income for the most recent period. It also may provide a comparison to Ontrak's previous reporting period. The quarterly earnings reports are usually disseminated to the public via Form 10-Q, which is a legal document filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission every quarter.
| 20th of March 2024 Upcoming Quarterly Report | View | |
| 8th of May 2024 Next Financial Report | View | |
| 31st of December 2023 Next Fiscal Quarter End | View | |
| 20th of March 2024 Next Fiscal Year End | View | |
| 30th of September 2023 Last Quarter Report | View | |
| 31st of December 2022 Last Financial Announcement | View |
Earnings surprises can significantly impact Ontrak's stock price both in the short term and over time. Negative earnings surprises usually result in a price decline. However, it has been seen that positive earnings surprises lead to an immediate rise in a stock's price and a gradual increase over time. This is why we often hear news about some companies beating earning projections. Financial analysts spend a large amount of time predicting earnings per share (EPS) along with other important future indicators. Many analysts use forecasting models, management guidance, and additional fundamental information to derive an EPS estimate. Below are the table of largest EPS Surprises Ontrak's investors have experienced.
| Reported | Fiscal Date | Estimated EPS | Reported EPS | Surprise | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2015-03-31 | 2014-12-31 | -0.05 | -0.04 | 0.01 | 20 | ||
2017-11-14 | 2017-09-30 | -0.17 | -0.19 | -0.02 | 11 | ||
2017-08-15 | 2017-06-30 | -0.2 | -0.22 | -0.02 | 10 | ||
2021-03-01 | 2020-12-31 | -0.3 | -0.27 | 0.03 | 10 | ||
2017-03-01 | 2016-12-31 | -0.21 | -0.18 | 0.03 | 14 | ||
2019-08-14 | 2019-06-30 | -0.3 | -0.34 | -0.04 | 13 | ||
2018-08-14 | 2018-06-30 | -0.3 | -0.26 | 0.04 | 13 | ||
2018-03-07 | 2017-12-31 | -0.12 | -0.17 | -0.05 | 41 |
Know Ontrak's Top Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Ontrak is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ontrak Inc backward and forwards among themselves. Ontrak's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Ontrak's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Royal Bank Of Canada | 2024-06-30 | 7.0 | Capital Advisors, Ltd. Llc | 2024-09-30 | 5.0 | Comerica Bank | 2024-09-30 | 4.0 | Bnp Paribas Arbitrage, Sa | 2024-09-30 | 2.0 | Richard W Paul & Associates Llc | 2024-09-30 | 2.0 | State Street Corp | 2024-09-30 | 0.0 | Wells Fargo & Co | 2024-06-30 | 0.0 | Advisor Group Holdings, Inc. | 2024-06-30 | 0.0 | Xtx Topco Ltd | 2024-06-30 | 0.0 | Jane Street Group Llc | 2024-06-30 | 19.2 K | Blackrock Inc | 2024-06-30 | 15.8 K |
Ontrak's market capitalization trends
The company currently falls under 'Nano-Cap' category with a current market capitalization of 7.8 M.Market Cap |
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Ontrak's profitablity analysis
| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Return On Tangible Assets | (1.99) | (2.09) | |
| Return On Capital Employed | (1.30) | (1.36) | |
| Return On Assets | (1.41) | (1.48) | |
| Return On Equity | (1.96) | (2.05) |
Determining Ontrak's profitability involves analyzing its financial statements and using various financial metrics to determine if Ontrak is a good buy. For example, gross profit margin measures Ontrak's profitability after accounting for the cost of goods sold, while net profit margin measures profitability after accounting for all expenses. Other important metrics include return on assets, return on equity, and free cash flow. By reviewing multiple sources and metrics, you can gain a complete picture of Ontrak's profitability and make more informed investment decisions.
Evaluate Ontrak's management efficiency
Ontrak Inc has return on total asset (ROA) of (0.4518) % which means that it has lost $0.4518 on every $100 spent on assets. This is way below average. Similarly, it shows a return on stockholder's equity (ROE) of (3.4091) %, meaning that it created substantial loss on money invested by shareholders. Ontrak's management efficiency ratios could be used to measure how well Ontrak manages its routine affairs as well as how well it operates its assets and liabilities. The value of Return On Tangible Assets is estimated to slide to -2.09. The value of Return On Capital Employed is expected to slide to -1.36. Liabilities And Stockholders Equity is expected to rise to about 30.3 M this year, although the value of Total Current Liabilities will most likely fall to about 3.7 M.| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Book Value Per Share | 1.28 | 1.21 | |
| Tangible Book Value Per Share | 0.76 | 0.72 | |
| Enterprise Value Over EBITDA | (4.10) | (3.90) | |
| Price Book Value Ratio | 4.71 | 4.47 | |
| Enterprise Value Multiple | (4.10) | (3.90) | |
| Price Fair Value | 4.71 | 4.47 | |
| Enterprise Value | 121 M | 115 M |
The strategic initiatives led by Ontrak's management are central to its market success. By analyzing these initiatives, we provide a clear picture of the stock's growth prospects.
Beta 2.6 |
Basic technical analysis of Ontrak Stock
As of the 2nd of December, Ontrak holds the Coefficient Of Variation of (1,457), variance of 66.43, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.04). Compared to fundamental indicators, the technical analysis model allows you to check existing technical drivers of Ontrak, as well as the relationship between them.Ontrak's insider trading activities
Some recent studies suggest that insider trading raises the cost of capital for securities issuers and decreases overall economic growth. Trading by specific Ontrak insiders, such as employees or executives, is commonly permitted as long as it does not rely on Ontrak's material information that is not in the public domain. Local jurisdictions usually require such trading to be reported in order to monitor insider transactions. In many U.S. states, trading conducted by corporate officers, key employees, directors, or significant shareholders must be reported to the regulator or publicly disclosed, usually within a few business days of the trade. In these cases Ontrak insiders are required to file a Form 4 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) when buying or selling shares of their own companies.
Ontrak's Outstanding Corporate Bonds
Ontrak issues bonds to finance its operations. Corporate bonds make up one of the largest components of the U.S. bond market, which is considered the world's largest securities market. Ontrak Inc uses the proceeds from bond sales for a wide variety of purposes, including financing ongoing mergers and acquisitions, buying new equipment, investing in research and development, buying back their own stock, paying dividends to shareholders, and even refinancing existing debt. Most Ontrak bonds can be classified according to their maturity, which is the date when Ontrak Inc has to pay back the principal to investors. Maturities can be short-term, medium-term, or long-term (more than ten years). Longer-term bonds usually offer higher interest rates but may entail additional risks.
| Dana 575 percent Corp BondUS235822AB96 | View | |
| Boeing Co 2196 Corp BondUS097023DG73 | View | |
| BNP Paribas FRN Corp BondUSF1R15XK367 | View | |
| AerCap Global Aviation Corp BondUS00773HAA59 | View |
Understand Ontrak's technical and predictive indicators
Using predictive indicators to make investment decisions involves analyzing Ontrak's various financial and market-based factors to help forecast future trends and identify investment opportunities. Select the indicators that are most relevant to your investment strategy. Each indicator has its own strengths and weaknesses, so it's essential to combine multiple indicators to get a more comprehensive view of the market and reduce the risk of making poor decisions based on limited data.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.87) | |||
| Mean Deviation | 4.33 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | (1,457) | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.15 | |||
| Variance | 66.43 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.09) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.65) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (1.93) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.88) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 66.5 | |||
| Value At Risk | (7.61) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.91 | |||
| Skewness | 3.75 | |||
| Kurtosis | 26.42 |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.87) | |||
| Mean Deviation | 4.33 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | (1,457) | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.15 | |||
| Variance | 66.43 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.09) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.65) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (1.93) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.88) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 66.5 | |||
| Value At Risk | (7.61) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.91 | |||
| Skewness | 3.75 | |||
| Kurtosis | 26.42 |
Consider Ontrak's intraday indicators
Ontrak intraday indicators are useful technical analysis tools used by many experienced traders. Just like the conventional technical analysis, daily indicators help intraday investors to analyze the price movement with the timing of Ontrak stock daily movement. By combining multiple daily indicators into a single trading strategy, you can limit your risk while still earning strong returns on your managed positions.
Ontrak time-series forecasting models is one of many Ontrak's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Ontrak's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Ontrak Stock media impact
Far too much social signal, news, headlines, and media speculation about Ontrak that are available to investors today. That information is available publicly through Ontrak media outlets and privately through word of mouth or via Ontrak internal channels. However, regardless of the origin, that massive amount of Ontrak data is challenging to quantify into actionable patterns, especially for investors that are not very sophisticated with ever-evolving tools and techniques used in the investment management field.
A primary focus of Ontrak news analysis is to determine if its current price reflects all relevant headlines and social signals impacting the current market conditions. A news analyst typically looks at the history of Ontrak relative headlines and hype rather than examining external drivers such as technical or fundamental data. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned thinking related to Ontrak's headlines and news coverage data. This data is often completely overlooked or insufficiently analyzed for actionable insights to drive Ontrak alpha.
Ontrak Sentiment by Major News Outlets
Investor sentiment, mood or attitude towards Ontrak can have a significant impact on its stock price or the market as a whole. This sentiment can be positive or negative, and various factors, such as economic indicators, news events, or market trends, can influence it. When investor sentiment is positive, investors are more likely to buy stocks, increasing demand and increasing the stock price. Positive investor sentiment can be driven by good news about the company or the broader market, such as solid earnings reports or positive economic data.
Note that negative investor sentiment can cause investors to sell stocks, leading to a decrease in demand and a drop in the stock price. Negative sentiment can be driven by factors such as poor earnings reports, negative news about the company or industry, or broader economic concerns. It's important to note that investor sentiment is just one of many factors that can affect stock prices. Other factors, such as company performance, industry trends, and global economic conditions, can also play a significant role in determining the value of a stock.
Ontrak Corporate Management
| Sunmi Janicek | Chief Officer | Profile | |
| Susan Etzel | VP Fin | Profile | |
| James Park | CFO Officer | Profile | |
| Lori Wheeless | Senior Operations | Profile | |
| Brianna Brennan | Chief Officer | Profile | |
| Jaime Prieto | Chief Officer | Profile | |
| Terren Peizer | CEO Founder | Profile |
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Ontrak Inc. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in metropolitan statistical area. You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
Is Health Care Providers & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ontrak. If investors know Ontrak will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ontrak listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share 31.91 | Revenue Per Share 4.585 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.17) | Return On Assets (0.45) | Return On Equity (3.41) |
The market value of Ontrak Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ontrak that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ontrak's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ontrak's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ontrak's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ontrak's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
In summary, please note that there is a difference between Ontrak's value and its price, as these two are different measures arrived at by various means. Investors typically determine if Ontrak is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ontrak's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.