Universal Insurance Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| UVE Stock | USD 22.63 0.16 0.70% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Universal Insurance Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 22.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.60. Universal Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Universal Insurance stock prices and determine the direction of Universal Insurance Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Universal Insurance's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Universal |
Universal Insurance Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Universal Insurance's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1992-03-31 | Previous Quarter 351.9 M | Current Value 402.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 134.8 M |
Universal Insurance Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Universal Insurance Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 22.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55, mean absolute percentage error of 0.63, and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.60.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Universal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Universal Insurance's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Universal Insurance Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Universal Insurance | Universal Insurance Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Universal Insurance Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Universal Insurance's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Universal Insurance's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.65 and 25.68, respectively. We have considered Universal Insurance's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Universal Insurance stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Universal Insurance stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.6497 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5508 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0276 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 33.5972 |
Predictive Modules for Universal Insurance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Universal Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Universal Insurance's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Universal Insurance
For every potential investor in Universal, whether a beginner or expert, Universal Insurance's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Universal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Universal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Universal Insurance's price trends.Universal Insurance Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Universal Insurance stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Universal Insurance could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Universal Insurance by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Universal Insurance Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Universal Insurance's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Universal Insurance's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Universal Insurance Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Universal Insurance stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Universal Insurance shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Universal Insurance stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Universal Insurance Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Universal Insurance Risk Indicators
The analysis of Universal Insurance's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Universal Insurance's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting universal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.96 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.99 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.47 | |||
| Variance | 12.04 | |||
| Downside Variance | 17.91 | |||
| Semi Variance | 15.93 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.97) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Universal Insurance is a strong investment it is important to analyze Universal Insurance's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Universal Insurance's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Universal Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Universal Insurance to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Universal Insurance. If investors know Universal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Universal Insurance listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.301 | Dividend Share 0.64 | Earnings Share 2.48 | Revenue Per Share 52.62 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.076 |
The market value of Universal Insurance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Universal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Universal Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Universal Insurance's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Universal Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Universal Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Universal Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Universal Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Universal Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.