Alcoa Corp Stock Price Prediction
| AA Stock | USD 46.43 0.55 1.20% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
51
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.81 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.66 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.9839 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.2808 | Wall Street Target Price 47.4308 |
Using Alcoa Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alcoa Corp from the perspective of Alcoa Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Alcoa Corp using Alcoa Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Alcoa using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Alcoa Corp's stock price.
Alcoa Corp Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Alcoa Corp's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Alcoa. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Alcoa Corp stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 36.4481 | Short Percent 0.0404 | Short Ratio 1.73 | Shares Short Prior Month 9.3 M | 50 Day MA 41.2238 |
Alcoa Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Alcoa Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Alcoa. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Alcoa can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Alcoa Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Alcoa Corp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Alcoa Corp.
Alcoa Corp Implied Volatility | 0.71 |
Alcoa Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alcoa Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alcoa Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alcoa Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alcoa Corp's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Alcoa Corp to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Alcoa because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Alcoa Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 46.44 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Alcoa contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Alcoa Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0444% per day over the life of the 2024-12-06 option contract. With Alcoa Corp trading at USD 46.43, that is roughly USD 0.0206 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Alcoa Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Alcoa Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.71%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Alcoa |
Alcoa Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alcoa Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alcoa Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alcoa Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alcoa Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alcoa Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alcoa Corp's historical news coverage. Alcoa Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 43.32 and 49.56, respectively. We have considered Alcoa Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alcoa Corp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alcoa Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alcoa Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alcoa Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alcoa Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alcoa Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.74 | 3.12 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 7 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
46.43 | 46.44 | 0.02 |
|
Alcoa Corp Hype Timeline
As of November 30, 2024 Alcoa Corp is listed for 46.43. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Alcoa is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 46.44 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.74%. The volatility of related hype on Alcoa Corp is about 10400.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 46.45. The company generated the yearly revenue of 10.55 B. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (773 M) with gross profit of 2.31 B. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Alcoa Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Alcoa Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alcoa Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alcoa Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Alcoa Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alcoa Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FTCO | Fortitude Gold Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.39 | 0.08 | 3.19 | (2.39) | 16.65 | |
| NGD | New Gold | (0.01) | 9 per month | 2.85 | 0.02 | 5.53 | (4.50) | 17.13 | |
| GAU | Galiano Gold | 0.02 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.96 | (4.47) | 19.71 | |
| GLDG | GoldMining | (0.01) | 2 per month | 1.81 | (0.02) | 4.26 | (3.03) | 12.67 | |
| IAG | IAMGold | 0.15 | 9 per month | 3.21 | 0.03 | 6.95 | (4.35) | 25.09 |
Alcoa Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alcoa price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alcoa using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alcoa charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Alcoa Corp Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Alcoa Corp stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Alcoa Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alcoa Corp based on analysis of Alcoa Corp hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Alcoa Corp's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Alcoa Corp's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.008748 | 0.0119 | 0.005962 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.64 | 0.57 | 0.43 |
Story Coverage note for Alcoa Corp
The number of cover stories for Alcoa Corp depends on current market conditions and Alcoa Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alcoa Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alcoa Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Alcoa Corp Short Properties
Alcoa Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alcoa Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alcoa Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alcoa Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alcoa Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 178 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 944 M |
Complementary Tools for Alcoa Stock analysis
When running Alcoa Corp's price analysis, check to measure Alcoa Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alcoa Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Alcoa Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alcoa Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alcoa Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alcoa Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Portfolio Analyzer Portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine | |
| Funds Screener Find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges | |
| Bollinger Bands Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon | |
| Equity Analysis Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities | |
| Correlation Analysis Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated | |
| Portfolio Optimization Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk | |
| Aroon Oscillator Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios | |
| Investing Opportunities Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences | |
| Headlines Timeline Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity |