Advance Auto Parts Stock Price Prediction
| AAP Stock | USD 41.35 3.09 6.95% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
61
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.43) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.059 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.31) | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.8124 | Wall Street Target Price 44 |
Using Advance Auto hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Advance Auto Parts from the perspective of Advance Auto response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Advance Auto Parts Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Advance Auto's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Advance. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Advance can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Advance Auto Parts. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Advance Auto's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Advance Auto.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Advance Auto to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Advance because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Advance Auto after-hype prediction price | USD 41.43 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Advance |
Advance Auto After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Advance Auto at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Advance Auto or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Advance Auto, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Advance Auto Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Advance Auto's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Advance Auto's historical news coverage. Advance Auto's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 38.27 and 44.59, respectively. We have considered Advance Auto's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Advance Auto is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Advance Auto Parts is based on 3 months time horizon.
Advance Auto Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Advance Auto is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Advance Auto backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Advance Auto, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 3.16 | 0.08 | 0.28 | 8 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
41.35 | 41.43 | 0.19 |
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Advance Auto Hype Timeline
On the 30th of November Advance Auto Parts is traded for 41.35. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.28. Advance is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 41.43 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 124.9%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.03%. The volatility of related hype on Advance Auto is about 34.25%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 41.07. The company reported the last year's revenue of 11.29 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 29.73 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 4.96 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Advance Auto Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Advance Auto Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Advance Auto's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Advance Auto's future price movements. Getting to know how Advance Auto's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Advance Auto may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AZO | AutoZone | (71.87) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.14 | (1.68) | 6.36 | |
| TSCO | Tractor Supply | (2.01) | 11 per month | 1.57 | (0.04) | 2.16 | (2.25) | 9.44 | |
| GPC | Genuine Parts Co | (0.37) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.85 | (2.36) | 23.82 | |
| FIVE | Five Below | (0.39) | 11 per month | 2.79 | 0.05 | 5.40 | (3.80) | 16.58 | |
| ORLY | OReilly Automotive | (1.69) | 9 per month | 0.85 | 0 | 1.40 | (1.55) | 7.77 | |
| DKS | Dicks Sporting Goods | 5.16 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.97 | (3.16) | 7.73 | |
| ULTA | Ulta Beauty | (7.82) | 8 per month | 1.77 | (0.02) | 3.24 | (3.24) | 8.40 | |
| WSM | Williams Sonoma | (4.37) | 7 per month | 1.72 | 0.08 | 3.41 | (3.07) | 29.71 | |
| RH | RH | (8.62) | 12 per month | 1.51 | 0.13 | 4.95 | (2.84) | 29.32 | |
| BBY | Best Buy Co | (0.29) | 9 per month | 1.78 | (0.03) | 2.26 | (3.09) | 19.00 |
Advance Auto Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Advance price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Advance using various technical indicators. When you analyze Advance charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Advance Auto Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Advance Auto stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Advance Auto Parts, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Advance Auto based on analysis of Advance Auto hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Advance Auto's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Advance Auto's related companies. | 2016 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.001426 | 0.0379 | 0.0341 | 0.0358 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.72 | 0.7 |
Story Coverage note for Advance Auto
The number of cover stories for Advance Auto depends on current market conditions and Advance Auto's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Advance Auto is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Advance Auto's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Advance Auto Short Properties
Advance Auto's future price predictability will typically decrease when Advance Auto's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Advance Auto Parts often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Advance Auto's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Advance Auto's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 59.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 503.5 M |
Additional Tools for Advance Stock Analysis
When running Advance Auto's price analysis, check to measure Advance Auto's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Advance Auto is operating at the current time. Most of Advance Auto's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Advance Auto's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Advance Auto's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Advance Auto to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.