Baillie Gifford China Fund Price Prediction
| BGCDX Fund | USD 5.39 0.02 0.37% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
49
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Baillie Gifford hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Baillie Gifford China from the perspective of Baillie Gifford response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Baillie Gifford to buy its mutual fund at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Baillie because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell mutual funds at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Baillie Gifford after-hype prediction price | USD 5.39 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Baillie |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Baillie Gifford's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Baillie Gifford After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Baillie Gifford at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Baillie Gifford or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Baillie Gifford, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Baillie Gifford Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Baillie Gifford's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Baillie Gifford's historical news coverage. Baillie Gifford's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.78 and 8.00, respectively. We have considered Baillie Gifford's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Baillie Gifford is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Baillie Gifford China is based on 3 months time horizon.
Baillie Gifford Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Baillie Gifford is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Baillie Gifford backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Baillie Gifford, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 2.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
5.39 | 5.39 | 0.00 |
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Baillie Gifford Hype Timeline
Baillie Gifford China is currently traded for 5.39. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Baillie is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.32%. %. The volatility of related hype on Baillie Gifford is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.39. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Baillie Gifford Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Baillie Gifford Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Baillie Gifford's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Baillie Gifford's future price movements. Getting to know how Baillie Gifford's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Baillie Gifford may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HULEX | Huber Capital Equity | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.42 | (0) | 1.36 | (0.91) | 5.17 | |
| MPGVX | Mondrian Global Equity | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 0.92 | (0.92) | 3.10 | |
| LEQCX | Locorr Dynamic Equity | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.95 | (0.63) | 2.38 | |
| GMADX | Gmo Global Equity | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.54 | (0.13) | 0.89 | (0.97) | 2.98 | |
| DFVEX | Us Vector Equity | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.40 | 0.04 | 1.41 | (0.88) | 5.26 | |
| DIVHX | Cutler Equity | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.31 | (0.05) | 1.08 | (0.67) | 2.83 | |
| AECXX | Ab Fixed Income Shares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Baillie Gifford Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Baillie price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Baillie using various technical indicators. When you analyze Baillie charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Baillie Gifford Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Baillie Gifford stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Baillie Gifford China, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Baillie Gifford based on analysis of Baillie Gifford hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Baillie Gifford's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Baillie Gifford's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Baillie Gifford
The number of cover stories for Baillie Gifford depends on current market conditions and Baillie Gifford's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Baillie Gifford is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Baillie Gifford's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Baillie Mutual Fund
Baillie Gifford financial ratios help investors to determine whether Baillie Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Baillie with respect to the benefits of owning Baillie Gifford security.
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