Calumet Specialty Products Stock Price Prediction
| CLMT Stock | USD 20.14 1.24 5.80% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
56
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.617 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.40) | EPS Estimate Current Year (2.14) | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.215 | Wall Street Target Price 24.6 |
Using Calumet Specialty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Calumet Specialty Products from the perspective of Calumet Specialty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Calumet Specialty to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Calumet because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Calumet Specialty after-hype prediction price | USD 21.43 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Calumet |
Calumet Specialty After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Calumet Specialty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Calumet Specialty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Calumet Specialty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Calumet Specialty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Calumet Specialty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Calumet Specialty's historical news coverage. Calumet Specialty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.24 and 24.62, respectively. We have considered Calumet Specialty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Calumet Specialty is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Calumet Specialty is based on 3 months time horizon.
Calumet Specialty Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Calumet Specialty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Calumet Specialty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Calumet Specialty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 3.25 | 0.03 | 0.18 | 9 Events / Month | 12 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
20.14 | 21.43 | 0.23 |
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Calumet Specialty Hype Timeline
Calumet Specialty is currently traded for 20.14. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.18. Calumet is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 21.43 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.23%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Calumet Specialty is about 354.71%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.32. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 4.18 B. Net Income was 47.1 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 370.2 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Calumet Specialty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Calumet Specialty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Calumet Specialty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Calumet Specialty's future price movements. Getting to know how Calumet Specialty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Calumet Specialty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Calumet Specialty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Calumet price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Calumet using various technical indicators. When you analyze Calumet charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
About Calumet Specialty Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Calumet Specialty stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Calumet Specialty Products, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Calumet Specialty based on analysis of Calumet Specialty hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Calumet Specialty's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Calumet Specialty's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Payables Turnover | 9.98 | 9.81 | 11.58 | 14.29 | Days Of Inventory On Hand | 39.67 | 41.92 | 43.01 | 30.91 |
Story Coverage note for Calumet Specialty
The number of cover stories for Calumet Specialty depends on current market conditions and Calumet Specialty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Calumet Specialty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Calumet Specialty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Calumet Specialty Short Properties
Calumet Specialty's future price predictability will typically decrease when Calumet Specialty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Calumet Specialty Products often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Calumet Specialty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Calumet Specialty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 80.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.9 M |
Additional Tools for Calumet Stock Analysis
When running Calumet Specialty's price analysis, check to measure Calumet Specialty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Calumet Specialty is operating at the current time. Most of Calumet Specialty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Calumet Specialty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Calumet Specialty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Calumet Specialty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.