Affiliated Managers Group, Stock Price Prediction
| MGRB Stock | USD 19.75 0.64 3.35% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
38
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Affiliated Managers hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Affiliated Managers Group, from the perspective of Affiliated Managers response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Affiliated Managers to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Affiliated because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Affiliated Managers after-hype prediction price | USD 19.76 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Affiliated |
Affiliated Managers After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Affiliated Managers at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Affiliated Managers or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Affiliated Managers, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Affiliated Managers Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Affiliated Managers' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Affiliated Managers' historical news coverage. Affiliated Managers' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.77 and 20.75, respectively. We have considered Affiliated Managers' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Affiliated Managers is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Affiliated Managers is based on 3 months time horizon.
Affiliated Managers Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Affiliated Managers is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Affiliated Managers backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Affiliated Managers, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 0.99 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 3 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
19.75 | 19.76 | 0.05 |
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Affiliated Managers Hype Timeline
Affiliated Managers is now traded for 19.75. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Affiliated is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 19.76 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.04%. The volatility of related hype on Affiliated Managers is about 1031.25%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.75. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.06 B. Net Income was 906.1 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Affiliated Managers Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Affiliated Managers Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Affiliated Managers' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Affiliated Managers' future price movements. Getting to know how Affiliated Managers' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Affiliated Managers may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MGR | Affiliated Managers Group | (0.22) | 4 per month | 0.60 | (0.17) | 0.98 | (1.13) | 2.85 | |
| SOJE | Southern Company Series | (0.04) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 1.23 | (1.69) | 3.45 | |
| DTB | DTE Energy | (0.11) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 1.07 | (1.24) | 4.70 | |
| UZE | United States Cellular | (0.14) | 2 per month | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1.36 | (0.71) | 2.96 | |
| PFH | Prudential Financial 4125 | 0.03 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 1.30 | (1.50) | 3.29 |
Affiliated Managers Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Affiliated price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Affiliated using various technical indicators. When you analyze Affiliated charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Affiliated Managers Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Affiliated Managers stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Affiliated Managers Group,, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Affiliated Managers based on analysis of Affiliated Managers hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Affiliated Managers's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Affiliated Managers's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 2.49E-4 | 2.62E-4 | 2.82E-4 | 2.68E-4 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.83 | 2.62 | 2.58 | 3.45 |
Story Coverage note for Affiliated Managers
The number of cover stories for Affiliated Managers depends on current market conditions and Affiliated Managers' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Affiliated Managers is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Affiliated Managers' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Affiliated Managers Short Properties
Affiliated Managers' future price predictability will typically decrease when Affiliated Managers' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Affiliated Managers Group, often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Affiliated Managers' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Affiliated Managers' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 42.2 M | |
| Dividends Paid | -1.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.3 B |
Complementary Tools for Affiliated Stock analysis
When running Affiliated Managers' price analysis, check to measure Affiliated Managers' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Affiliated Managers is operating at the current time. Most of Affiliated Managers' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Affiliated Managers' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Affiliated Managers' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Affiliated Managers to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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