Smith Wesson Brands Stock Price Prediction
| SWBI Stock | USD 11.10 0.03 0.27% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
54
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.047 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.63 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.18 | Wall Street Target Price 15.3333 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.165 |
Using Smith Wesson hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Smith Wesson Brands from the perspective of Smith Wesson response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Smith Wesson using Smith Wesson's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Smith using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Smith Wesson's stock price.
Smith Wesson Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Smith Wesson's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Smith. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Smith Wesson stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 14.9415 | Short Percent 0.0376 | Short Ratio 3.34 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.6 M | 50 Day MA 13.148 |
Smith Wesson Brands Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Smith Wesson's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Smith. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Smith can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Smith Wesson Brands. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Smith Wesson's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Smith Wesson.
Smith Wesson Implied Volatility | 1.44 |
Smith Wesson's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Smith Wesson Brands stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Smith Wesson's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Smith Wesson stock will not fluctuate a lot when Smith Wesson's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Smith Wesson to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Smith because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Smith Wesson after-hype prediction price | USD 10.92 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Smith contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Smith Wesson Brands will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.09% per day over the life of the 2024-12-20 option contract. With Smith Wesson trading at USD 11.1, that is roughly USD 0.00999 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Smith Wesson's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Smith Wesson Brands options at the current volatility level of 1.44%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Smith |
Smith Wesson After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Smith Wesson at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Smith Wesson or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Smith Wesson, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Smith Wesson Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Smith Wesson's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Smith Wesson's historical news coverage. Smith Wesson's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.76 and 14.08, respectively. We have considered Smith Wesson's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Smith Wesson is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Smith Wesson Brands is based on 3 months time horizon.
Smith Wesson Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Smith Wesson is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Smith Wesson backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Smith Wesson, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 3.16 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 10 Events / Month | 12 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
11.10 | 10.92 | 0.36 |
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Smith Wesson Hype Timeline
Smith Wesson Brands is at this time traded for 11.10. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.08. Smith is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 10.92. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.36%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.18%. The volatility of related hype on Smith Wesson is about 674.87%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.02. About 61.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.35. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Smith Wesson Brands has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.45. The entity last dividend was issued on the 19th of September 2024. The firm had 1301:1000 split on the 25th of August 2020. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Smith Wesson Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Smith Wesson Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Smith Wesson's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Smith Wesson's future price movements. Getting to know how Smith Wesson's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Smith Wesson may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Smith Wesson Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Smith price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Smith using various technical indicators. When you analyze Smith charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Smith Wesson Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Smith Wesson stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Smith Wesson Brands, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Smith Wesson based on analysis of Smith Wesson hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Smith Wesson's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Smith Wesson's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0331 | 0.0283 | 0.0186 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.16 | 1.45 | 114.0 |
Story Coverage note for Smith Wesson
The number of cover stories for Smith Wesson depends on current market conditions and Smith Wesson's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Smith Wesson is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Smith Wesson's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Smith Wesson Short Properties
Smith Wesson's future price predictability will typically decrease when Smith Wesson's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Smith Wesson Brands often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Smith Wesson's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Smith Wesson's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 46.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 60.8 M |
Complementary Tools for Smith Stock analysis
When running Smith Wesson's price analysis, check to measure Smith Wesson's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Smith Wesson is operating at the current time. Most of Smith Wesson's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Smith Wesson's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Smith Wesson's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Smith Wesson to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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