American National Bankshares (AMNB) is gaining momentum in the market, as reflected in its recent price change of 0.69, signaling increased investor confidence. The bank's stock opened at $31.3 and has since risen to a quote of $31.99, marking a price percent change of 2.2. This positive trend is supported by a robust Sortino Ratio of 0.0372, which indicates the bank's potential to generate profits despite downside risks. Furthermore, the bank's risk-adjusted performance of 0.0452 and market risk-adjusted performance of 0.0798 demonstrate its ability to deliver solid returns while managing market volatility. Despite the potential downside of 4.84 and a reported loss of 2.25 in expected shortfall, the overall positive
market sentiment and performance metrics suggest that investing in AMNB could be a profitable venture.
Further analysis
Our advice module can be used to supplement the investment recommendation for American National, provided by the
average analyst sentiment. This module analyzes the company's growth potential using available fundamental, technical, and market data. Approximately
42.0% of the company's shares are held by institutional investors, such as insurance companies. American National has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.26. Over the long term, some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) ratios have outperformed the market. The company's last dividend was issued on June 1, 2023. The firm underwent a
2:1 split on July 16, 1999.
The successful prediction of American National
stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published
stock prices of traded companies, such as American National Bankshares, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at
the intrinsic value of American National based on American National hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used
predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to American National's
market risk, different
technical and
fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then
comparing them to American National's related companies.
Use Technical Analysis to project American expected Price
American National technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, delisted stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of American National technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of American National trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions.
More Info...Breaking it down a bit more
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 109.27
M. Net Income was 34.43
M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 107.45
M.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) |
Net Income | 30.05 M | 43.53 M | 34.43 M | 30.89 M | Gross Profit | 91.75 M | 114.25 M | 107.45 M | 100.75 M |
Revenues Breakdown
American National Revenues is increasing over the years with slightly volatile fluctuation. Revenues is expected to dwindle to about 100.8
M. Revenues usually refers to the amount of Revenue recognised from goods sold; services rendered; insurance premiums; or other activities that constitute an earning process. Interest income for financial institutions is reported net of interest expense and provision for credit losses. Where this item is not contained on the company consolidated financial statements and cannot otherwise be imputed the value of 0 is used. American National Revenues is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Revenues was at 107.45 Million
| 2016 | 63.11 Million |
| 2017 | 68.96 Million |
| 2018 | 72.47 Million |
| 2019 | 91.84 Million |
| 2020 | 91.75 Million |
| 2021 | 114.25 Million |
| 2022 | 107.45 Million |
| 2023 | 100.75 Million |
American National Bankshares (AMNB) has been capturing increased investor confidence, as evidenced by several key financial indicators. The bank's total assets stand at a significant
$3.07 billion, with cash and equivalents amounting to $94.98 million. This robust
financial position is reflected in a healthy Price to Book ratio of 1.26X and a Price to Earnings ratio of 12.46X. The bank's Gross Profit stands at $107.45 million, with a net income of $34.43 million. This has contributed to a Return on Asset of 0.0108 and a Return on Equity of 0.1, indicating efficient use of resources. The bank's Market Risk Adjusted Performance is 0.0798, and the Information Ratio is 0.0321, suggesting a favorable risk-return trade-off. AMNB's market capitalization is
$345.47 million, and the shares are primarily held by institutions, which own 41.54% of the stock. The bank's Debt to Equity ratio is a manageable 6.82%, and the Probability of Bankruptcy is 38.43%. Despite an expected shortfall of -2.25 and a maximum drawdown of 10.32, the bank's strong financial position and investor confidence suggest potential upside of 4.84.
Will American National growth be sustainable after the rise?
The current Information Ratio of American National Bankshares, a metric that measures portfolio returns beyond the returns of a benchmark, has increased to 0.03. This suggests a minor advantage over the market. However, the stock price may undergo a downward correction in the near future. This casts doubt on the sustainability of the company's growth, especially considering its recent rise. Investors are advised to exercise caution and keep a close watch on the stock's performance before making any investment decisions. American National Bankshares currently exhibits a below-average downside deviation. It has an Information Ratio of 0.03 and a Jensen Alpha of 0.04. Nevertheless, we recommend investors to further scrutinize American National Bankshares' expected returns to ensure all indicators align with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk. Understanding different
market volatility trends can often assist investors in timing the market. The correct use of volatility indicators allows traders to gauge American National's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends.
The heightened level of volatility that accompanies bear markets can directly affect
American National's stock price, causing stress to investors as they watch the value of their shares decrease. This typically compels investors to rebalance their portfolios by purchasing different stocks as prices drop. In conclusion, the recent price rise of American National Bankshares (AMNB) may appear enticing, but a closer look at the underlying data suggests caution. The stock's current market valuation stands at
$31.99, which is slightly below its real value of
$32.69. This discrepancy indicates that the stock may be overvalued, and the potential upside price of $36.47 could be misleading. The analysts' consensus holds the stock at a 'Hold' rating, with two holds on record. Moreover, the analysts' target price estimated value is $35, which is marginally above the naive expected forecast value of $33.92. Therefore, while the stock's recent performance may seem promising, investors should consider these factors before making a decision. The potential downside price of $31.37 also suggests that there may be some risk involved. .
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Vlad Skutelnik is a Macroaxis Contributor. Vlad covers stocks, funds, cryptocurrencies, and ETFs that are traded in North America, focusing primarily on fundamentals, valuation and market volatility. He has many years of experience in fintech, predictive investment analytics, and risk management.
View Profile This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Vlad Skutelnik do not own shares of American National Bankshares. Please refer to our
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