American Superconductor (NASDAQ: AMSC), a key player in the Industrials sector, specifically in the Machinery, Tools, Heavy Vehicles, Trains & Ships industry, has been making waves in the market with its recent performance. The company's stock has been bolstering shareholder confidence, reflected in its Valuation Hype Value of
12.55. The company's fiscal year ends in March, and it has been showing promising signs with a Naive Expected Forecast Value of
14.17. Analysts have a strong buy consensus on the stock, with all four estimates being strong buys. The Analyst Target Price Estimated Value stands at 10.25, with the highest estimated target price reaching
13 and the lowest at 7. This suggests a possible upside price of 24.41 and a possible downside price of 3.94. With a Valuation Market Value of 11.46 and a Valuation Real Value of 10.63, American Superconductor seems to be on a promising trajectory. Firstly, let's understand why investors in American Superconductor are seeking stability amid the current economic uncertainty. American Superconductor is currently trading at $11.46. The company has a historical hype elasticity of 1.09. It is projected that the firm's value will increase following the next press release, with the price expected to rise to $12.55. The recent volatility of headline impact on the company's stock price is significantly over 100 percent, making price predictions on social media less reliable. The price growth following the next news is forecasted to be 9.51%, while the daily expected return currently stands at 2.23%. Given an investment horizon of 90 days, the next projected announcement is expected in approximately 7 days.
The successful prediction of American Superconductor
stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published
stock prices of traded companies, such as American Superconductor, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at
the intrinsic value of American Superconductor based on American Superconductor hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used
predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to American Superconductor's
market risk, different
technical and
fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then
comparing them to American Superconductor's related companies.
Use Technical Analysis to project American expected Price
American Superconductor technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of American Superconductor technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of American Superconductor trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions.
More Info...American Superconductor Gross Profit
American Superconductor Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing American Superconductor previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show American Superconductor Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check American Superconductor's
gross profit and other
fundamental indicators for more details.
Another Deeper Perspective
The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 105.98
M. Net Loss for the year was (35.04
M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 14.09
M.
Deferred Revenue Breakdown
American Superconductor Deferred Revenue is increasing over the years with slightly volatile fluctuation. Deferred Revenue is expected to dwindle to about 40.6
M. Deferred Revenue usually refers to a component of Total Liabilities representing the carrying amount of consideration received or receivable on potential earnings that were not recognized as revenue; including sales; license fees; and royalties; but excluding interest income. Where this item is not contained on the company consolidated financial statements and cannot otherwise be imputed the value of 0 is used. American Superconductor Deferred Revenue is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Deferred Revenue was at 50.76 Million
| 2016 | 21.95 Million |
| 2017 | 21.94 Million |
| 2018 | 15.52 Million |
| 2019 | 26.14 Million |
| 2020 | 21.26 Million |
| 2021 | 30.03 Million |
| 2022 | 50.76 Million |
| 2023 | 40.62 Million |
American Superconductor (NASDAQ: AMSC) has been making headlines recently with its strong performance in the market. With a market capitalization of
$488.24M, the company has been successful in bolstering shareholder confidence. The company's current valuation stands at $278.04M, with a book value per share of 2.77X. The company's risk-adjusted performance is at 0.1433, indicating that the company has been managing its risks effectively. The company's shares are owned by insiders at 5.55% and by institutions at 45.57%, demonstrating a balanced ownership structure. Despite the company's positive performance, it is important to note that the company has a downside deviation of 6.83 and a standard deviation of 9.91, indicating potential volatility in the stock's returns. The company also has a beta of 1.49, which suggests that the stock is more volatile than the market. The company's
financial health is also noteworthy. With a working capital of $22.07M and current assets of $83.34M against current liabilities of $41.01M, the company has a current ratio of 1.52X, indicating a strong liquidity position. However, investors should be cautious as the company has a probability of bankruptcy at 1.00%. Despite this, the company's recent performance and strong
financial position suggest that American Superconductor may be a viable investment option for those willing to take on a higher level of risk.
High level of complacency for American Superconductor after the latest price dip
The recent increase in the coefficient of variation for American Superconductor, which has risen to over 492.79, signifies a high degree of volatility and risk associated with this stock. Despite a recent dip in price, there appears to be a substantial level of complacency among investors. This could be a point of concern, as the high coefficient of variation suggests that the stock's returns are far from stable. Investors are advised to exercise caution and take into account this high level of risk before making any decisions. As of August 3rd, American Superconductor has a mean deviation of 5.7 and a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1433. The
technical analysis of American Superconductor provides a methodology to utilize historical prices and volume patterns to predict a pattern that approximates the direction of the company's future prices. In other words, this information can be used to determine if the company will likely mirror its model of historical prices and volume momentum, or if the prices will eventually revert. We have been able to gather and analyze nineteen technical drivers for American Superconductor, which can be compared to its
competitors.
Please verify American Superconductor's Jensen Alpha, and the relationship between the coefficient of variation and potential upside to determine if American Superconductor is priced correctly, given that the market reflects its regular price of 11.46 per share. Considering that American Superconductor has a Jensen Alpha of 1.82, we recommend that you evaluate American Superconductor's current market performance to ensure the company can sustain itself in the future. In conclusion, American Superconductor (AMSC) presents a compelling investment opportunity. The stock currently has a strong buy consensus from analysts, with
4 strong buy recommendations. The analyst target price estimated value stands at $
10.25, while the valuation real value is $10.63, suggesting that the stock is undervalued. Furthermore, the analyst highest estimated target price is $13, indicating a potential upside. However, investors should also consider the possible downside price of $3.94. Given these factors, coupled with the company's fiscal year end in March, it would be prudent for investors to keep a close eye on AMSC's performance in the coming months. .
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Rifka Kats is a Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board. Rifka writes about retail product and service companies from the perspective of a regular consumer and sophisticated investor at the same time. She is passionate about corporate ethics and equality in the workforce.
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