Capstone Green Energy, a prominent player in the Specialty Industrial Machinery industry, has been making waves in the NASDAQ exchange. Despite a fiscal year-end marked by a loss, the company's strong
fundamentals and promising prospects make it a potential breakout investment opportunity for 2023. The stock has an accumulation distribution of 53.1K and a rate of daily change of 0.86, indicating a healthy trading volume. The company's valuation real value stands at 3.41, while the market value is at 0.5, suggesting a potential upside. Analysts have a strong buy consensus on the stock, with an estimated target price of 12, the highest estimated target price reaching up to
16. The possible upside price is projected at 7.16, significantly higher than the day's median price of 0.52. With a valuation hype value of 0.63, Capstone Green Energy could indeed be the investment opportunity to watch out for in 2023. In general, our focus is on analyzing the price patterns of Capstone Green Energy (US Stocks: CGRN) and their correlations with various microeconomic environments and drivers. We also employ predictive analytics to construct daily price indicators for Capstone Green Energy and compare them against corresponding drivers. In this article, we will provide a recap on Capstone Green Energy. We aim to assess why the recent price movements of Capstone Green Energy suggest a potential rebound in September.
The successful prediction of Capstone Green
stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published
stock prices of traded companies, such as Capstone Green Energy, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at
the intrinsic value of Capstone Green based on Capstone Green hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used
predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to Capstone Green's
market risk, different
technical and
fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then
comparing them to Capstone Green's related companies.
Watch out for price decline
Please consider monitoring Capstone Green on a daily basis if you are holding a position in it. Capstone Green is trading at a penny-stock level, and the possibility of delisting is much higher compared to other delisted stocks. However, just because the stock is trading under one dollar, does not mean it will be marked for deletion.
Most exchanges require public instruments, such as Capstone Green stock to be traded above the $1 level to remain listed. If Capstone Green stock price falls below $1 for 30 consecutive trading days, the exchange can delist it. Once the company reaches this point, they will be sent an initial price violation notice directly from an exchange.
Use Technical Analysis to project Capstone expected Price
Capstone Green technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, delisted stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Capstone Green technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Capstone Green trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions.
More Info...A Deeper Perspective
Capstone Green Energy reported the previous year's revenue of 69.64
M. Net Loss for the year was (20.21
M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 9.33
M.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) |
Receivables | 20.59 M | 24.66 M | 22.2 M | 19.45 M | Inventories | 11.83 M | 18.46 M | 21.23 M | 21.68 M |
Deferred Revenue Breakdown
Capstone Green Deferred Revenue yearly trend continues to be very stable with very little volatility. Deferred Revenue is likely to drop to about 9.6
M. Deferred Revenue usually refers to a component of Total Liabilities representing the carrying amount of consideration received or receivable on potential earnings that were not recognized as revenue; including sales; license fees; and royalties; but excluding interest income. Where this item is not contained on the company consolidated financial statements and cannot otherwise be imputed the value of 0 is used. Capstone Green Deferred Revenue is very stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Capstone Green reported last year Deferred Revenue of 11.69 Million
| 2016 | 5.05 Million |
| 2017 | 6.6 Million |
| 2018 | 8.24 Million |
| 2019 | 8.84 Million |
| 2020 | 7.14 Million |
| 2021 | 10.17 Million |
| 2022 | 11.69 Million |
| 2023 | 9.58 Million |
Capstone Green Energy, a player in the Specialty Industrial Machinery industry, is gaining attention as a potential breakout investment opportunity for 2023. Despite a high probability of bankruptcy at 96.00%, the company's total assets stand at a substantial
$100.77 million, with a current valuation of $63.02 million. The company's gross profit for the last fiscal year was $9.33 million, indicating some financial stability. The company's shares are significantly owned by institutions and insiders, at 17.20% and 3.73% respectively, which could be a sign of confidence in the company's future. The company's current ratio of 1.80X suggests it is capable of meeting its short-term obligations, while its total debt stands at
$57.43 million. However, investors should be aware of the company's negative financial indicators. The Z Score of -12.28 and Jensen Alpha of -0.98 suggest potential financial distress and underperformance relative to the market. The company also reported a loss on assets of 0.07 and a negative return on equity of 2.92. Despite these challenges, Capstone Green Energy's low price to sales ratio of 0.37X and price to book ratio of 4.74X suggest the stock may be undervalued. With a potential upside of 7.44, investors willing to take on risk may find Capstone Green Energy a compelling investment for 2023.
Time to quit on Capstone Green is now
Despite the recent drop in the total risk alpha indicator to -1.34, which could potentially signal a price increase for Capstone Green Energy, it may be wise for investors to contemplate exiting their positions in the company. The negative alpha suggests that the stock has underperformed the market. While this could hint at a potential rebound, it also underscores inherent risks and uncertainties surrounding the company's performance. Therefore, considering the
current market conditions and the company's performance, it might be prudent for investors to reassess their investment in Capstone Green Energy. Capstone Green Energy has exhibited above-average volatility over the selected time horizon. Investors should thoroughly analyze Capstone Green Energy independently to ensure that their intended
market timing strategies align with their expectations about Capstone Green's volatility. Capstone Green Energy is a potential penny stock. Although Capstone Green may indeed be a viable investment instrument, many penny stocks are speculative and subject to artificial price inflation. We urge investors to be vigilant for signals such as email spam, message board hype, claims of breakthroughs, volume surges, sudden news releases, unreported promotions, or demotions released prior to SEC filings. We also recommend checking the biographies and work histories of current and past company officers before investing in high volatility instruments, penny stocks, or equities with a microcap classification.
It is indeed possible to profit from Capstone's instrument if you time your entry and exit perfectly. However, remember that penny stocks that have been subject to artificial hype are usually unable to sustain their increased share price for more than a few days. The price of a promoted high volatility instrument will almost always revert back. The only way to enhance shareholder value is through legitimate performance backed by solid fundamentals. In conclusion, Capstone Green Energy (CGRN) presents a compelling investment opportunity for 2023. The company's valuation real value stands at
$3.41, significantly higher than its current market value of
$0.5. This discrepancy suggests a potential upside, which is further supported by the analyst's highest estimated target price of $16. However, investors should also consider the possible downside price of $0.004991. With one strong buy recommendation and an overall consensus of a strong buy from two estimates, the expected forecast value of $0.58 indicates a make or break year for Capstone. Therefore, investors should closely monitor CGRN as the fiscal year end in March approaches, given the potential for significant price movements. .
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Raphi Shpitalnik is a Junior Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board. Raphael is a young entrepreneur who joined Macroaxis on a part-time basis at the beginning of the pandemic and eventually acquired a real taste for investing and fintech. He likes to analyze different equity instruments across a wide range of industries, focusing primarily on consumer products, sports, fintech, cannabis, and AI.
View Profile This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Raphi Shpitalnik do not own shares of Capstone Green Energy. Please refer to our
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