Navient Corp (NASDAQ: NAVI), a prominent player in the Credit Services industry, has been showing promising technicals that could unlock lucrative opportunities for investors in August. The company's strong
financial performance, with a net income from continuing operations of
645M and net interest income of
1.1B, suggests a robust business model. Despite a loss of 340M to net income, the company's PE ratio stands at a healthy 5.322, indicating good earnings relative to its share price. The stock is currently trading close to its 52-week high of
19.691, with a 50-day moving average of 17.5012 and a 200-day moving average of 16.7576, indicating a positive trend. The Wall Street target price for NAVI is 19.44, with a possible upside price of 21.92, offering a potential return for investors. However, investors should also consider the possible downside price of 17.98 and the short percent of 0.1048, indicating some bearish sentiment in the market. The company's beta of 1.5973 suggests higher volatility than the market, which could mean higher potential returns but also higher risk. With nine analyst estimates, the overall consensus for NAVI is 'Hold', with one strong buy and one strong sell recommendation. The company's valuation market value and valuation hype value both stand at 19.34, slightly above the valuation real value of 17.27, suggesting some overvaluation. Investors should also consider the company's price to book ratio of 0.7677, which is lower than 1, indicating that the stock might be undervalued. With 8.3M shares short, there is a potential for a short squeeze, which could drive the stock price higher. As of the latest update on 2023-07-25, NAVI appears to be a stock with potential for both risk and reward in August. As many millennials are increasingly interested in the consumer finance sector, it's logical to evaluate Navient Corp in light of current economic trends. As we've previously noted, Navient Corp is beginning its descent as traders adopt a more bearish stance due to heightened sector volatility. Navient Corp's performance doesn't always align with broader market trends. Much of the company's stock price fluctuations reflect overall market conditions. The company's robust fundamental indicators could signal potential short-term price movements for traders. Navient Corp is set to announce its earnings today, with the next financial report anticipated on October 24, 2023.
Using predictive
technical analysis, we can analyze different prices and returns patterns and
diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Navient Corp. In general, sophisticated investors focus on analyzing Navient Corp stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. They apply predictive analytics to build Navient Corp's daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers such as
momentum indicators and various other types of predictive indicators. Using this methodology combined with a more conventional
technical analysis and
fundamental analysis, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of
Navient Corp's intrinsic value. In addition to deriving basic predictive indicators for Navient Corp, many experienced traders also check how macroeconomic factors affect Navient Corp price patterns. Please read more on our
technical analysis page or use our predictive modules below to complement your research.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed
many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Navient Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
How does Navient Stands against Peers?
Analyzing Navient Corp competition or peers my help you to expand the diversification possibilities of your existing portfolios and to get a better perspective on locking in new positions. Try to analyze the advantages of investing in traded instruments related to Navient Corp across multiple sectors and
thematic ideas. A good competitive analysis can cover a lot of different areas. But what areas to choose depends on who you are. The more exhaustive you are in your analysis, the more effective your competitive analysis will be. Check out
Navient Corp Competition DetailsNavient Corp Gross Profit
Navient Corp Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Navient Corp previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Navient Corp Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Navient Corp's
gross profit and other
fundamental indicators for more details.
Closer look at Navient Corp Variance
Navient Corp has current Variance of 3.86. Variance is another measure of security risk that shows the amount of dispersion of equity returns around their mean value. Variance is calculated as the average squared deviations from the mean. Evaluating a set of investment alternatives one can use variance to help determine the volatility when purchasing a specific security. Similar to Standard Deviation, the variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out around its mean.
Variance is also a measure of stock volatility and can help determine the risk an investor might take on when purchasing a specific security. A relatively big variance indicates that the daily prices or returns are far from the mean and a small variance indicates that they are located around the mean.
Variance | = | SUM(RET DEV)2 N |
| = | 3.86 |
| SUM | = | Summation notation |
| RET DEV | = | Actual returns deviation over selected period |
| N | = | Number of points for the period |
Let's now compare Navient Corp Variance to its closest peers:
| NAVI | 3.856545953160055 |
| AGM | 3.28 |
| DXF | 30,537.64 |
| FOA | 20.1 |
| NNI | 1.12 |
Navient Corp (NASDAQ: NAVI), a key player in the Consumer Finance sector, has been exhibiting strong
financial health with a net asset of
70.8B and a current ratio of 11.86X, indicating its ability to meet short-term obligations. The company has shown a promising five-year return of 5.08%, with a net income of 645M.
The firm's operating margin stands at 0.47%, and it has a payout ratio of 0.1934, which suggests a sustainable dividend policy. Navient's technical indicators also point towards potential growth. The 50-day moving average is 17.5012, which is higher than the 200-day moving average of 16.7576, indicating a bullish trend. The company's beta of 1.6 suggests higher volatility compared to the market, which could mean higher potential returns for risk-tolerant investors. Despite a high total debt of
66.9B, the company's risk-adjusted performance of 0.1068 and a Treynor ratio of 0.1663 indicate effective risk management. However, investors should note the probability of bankruptcy stands at 48.05%, which adds a layer of risk. In conclusion, Navient Corp presents a mixed bag of opportunities and risks. Investors should weigh these factors carefully before making a decision. .
Navient Corp has 84 percent chance to finish below $18.95 next week
Navient Corp's stock performance is indicating potential downward movement in the near term. The semi-variance, a measure of potential downside risk, has decreased to 3.49 as of today, signifying a lower variability in negative returns. This reduction in semi-variance suggests an increased likelihood of the stock price declining. Based on these metrics, we predict an 84 percent probability that Navient Corp's stock will close below $18.95 next week. Investors should proceed with caution and consider their risk tolerance before making investment decisions. Currently, Navient Corp exhibits a below-average downside deviation. It has an Information Ratio of 0.11 and a Jensen Alpha of 0.17. However, we recommend investors to further scrutinize Navient Corp's expected returns to ensure all indicators align with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk. Understanding different
market volatility trends often assists investors in timing the market. The correct use of volatility indicators allows traders to measure Navient Corp's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The heightened level of volatility that accompanies bear markets can directly affect
Navient Corp's stock price, adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value decrease. This typically compels investors to rebalance their portfolios by purchasing different stocks as prices drop.
Our Conclusion on Navient Corp
Although some firms in the credit services industry are either recovering or due for a correction, Navient may not be as strong as the others in terms of longer-term growth potentials. With a somewhat neutral outlook on your 90 days horizon, it may be better to hold off any trading activity and neither acquire new shares of Navient nor exit your existing holdings in the Stock. It seems the expected volatility has not yet been fully factored into the current price. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Navient Corp.
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Aina Ster is a Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board. Aina delivers weekly perspective on ongoing market and economic trends, analysis and tips from predictive analysis to forecasting across various financial instruments.
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