As we approach October, investors are closely monitoring VMware Inc. (NYSE: VMW), a prominent player in the technology sector. With a typical day price of $164.79 and a valuation real value of
$177.09, the stock presents an intriguing investment opportunity. Despite the daily balance of power leaning towards -0.64, indicating a slight bearish sentiment, the potential dips in the stock's price could provide attractive buying opportunities. The analyst's overall consensus is a 'Hold' with nine holds out of five estimates. The estimated target price value stands at $165.9, with the highest estimated target price reaching up to
$182 and the lowest dipping to $142.5. This range of estimates suggests a possible upside price of $162.83 and a downside price of $159.72. The rate of daily change is at 0.99, and the price action indicator stands at -1.23. Despite the slight loss, the accumulation distribution of 22.2K indicates a steady interest in the stock. The company's valuation hype value stands at $166.7, slightly above the market value of $164.35. As we head towards the fiscal year-end in January, the naive expected forecast value is $161.27. This projection, coupled with the potential dips, could present an attractive entry point for investors. In conclusion, while VMware Inc. has experienced some volatility, the potential dips in October could provide lucrative buying opportunities for discerning investors. The company's solid valuation and the analyst's target price estimates suggest a promising outlook for the stock. Today, our attention is focused on VMware. We aim to assess why our confidence remains high in anticipation of a recovery. As of September 12, 2023, the company's stock is trading at $164.35. Historically, VMware Inc. has a hype elasticity of 1.11. The average price elasticity to the hype of its competition stands at approximately -0.01. Following the next press release, the company's value is expected to rise, with the stock price projected to climb to $166.7. The average impact of headlines on VMware's stock price exhibits a volatility of about 36.62%. The projected price increase following the next news release is estimated to be 0.72%, while the current daily expected return stands at 0.26%. Given a 90-day investment horizon, the next anticipated announcement is expected in approximately 6 days.
The successful prediction of VMware
stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published
stock prices of traded companies, such as VMware Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at
the intrinsic value of VMware based on VMware hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used
predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to VMware's
market risk, different
technical and
fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then
comparing them to VMware's related companies.
Use Technical Analysis to project VMware expected Price
VMware technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, delisted stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of VMware technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of VMware trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions.
More Info...Breaking it down
The latest bullish price patterns experienced by current VMware shareholders may raise some interest from sophisticated investors as it is trading at a share price of
164.35 on
2,038,909 in trading volume. The company directors and management have been very successful in rebalancing the company assets at opportune times to take advantage of
market volatility in
August. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 90 days investing horizon is currently 1.56. The below-average Stock volatility is a good sign for longer-term investment options and for buy-and-hold investors.
Deferred Revenue Breakdown
VMware Deferred Revenue yearly trend continues to be fairly stable with very little volatility. Deferred Revenue will likely drop to about 9.7
B in 2023. Deferred Revenue usually refers to a component of Total Liabilities representing the carrying amount of consideration received or receivable on potential earnings that were not recognized as revenue; including sales; license fees; and royalties; but excluding interest income. Where this item is not contained on the company consolidated financial statements and cannot otherwise be imputed the value of 0 is used. VMware Deferred Revenue is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. VMware reported Deferred Revenue of 12.74 Billion in 2022
| 2010 | 7.44 Billion |
| 2012 | 3.46 Billion |
| 2013 | 4.09 Billion |
| 2014 | 4.83 Billion |
| 2015 | 5.08 Billion |
| 2016 | 5.62 Billion |
| 2019 | 12.74 Billion |
| 2023 | 9.67 Billion |
VMware Inc. (NYSE: VMW), a significant player in the technology sector, has been attracting attention in the stock market with its robust
fundamentals and promising growth potential. As of the end of the fiscal year in January, VMware boasted a revenue of
$13.35B and an operating margin of 0.16%. The company's net income was $1.31B, reflecting a profit margin of 0.10%. The company's current valuation stands at
$76.04B, with a price to earnings ratio of 36.14X and price to sales ratio of 3.97X. The target price for the stock is $165.9, suggesting a potential upside of 4.04. VMware's total assets are valued at $31.24B, with cash and equivalents amounting to $5.1B. Despite a daily balance of power of -0.64 and a downside deviation of 0.9721, the company's risk-adjusted performance is 0.1324, indicating stable returns. The company's Beta of 0.83 suggests less volatility compared to the market. Institutional ownership stands at 49.64%, demonstrating strong confidence from sophisticated investors. However, the stock also has a short ratio of 3.67X, with 4.85M shares shorted, indicating some investor skepticism. Despite potential dips in October, VMware Inc. provides attractive buying opportunities for discerning investors seeking a stable technology stock with strong growth potential.
VMware has a small chance to finish above $168 in 2 months
VMware Inc. has recently exhibited a variance of 2.51, indicating a moderate level of volatility in its stock price. While this degree of fluctuation does suggest some potential for price movement, it may not be substantial enough to propel the stock to close above $168 in the forthcoming two months. Investors are advised to exercise caution and monitor the market closely, as the likelihood of such an increase currently appears to be relatively small. VMware Inc exhibits low volatility, as indicated by a Treynor Ratio of 0.35, a Maximum Drawdown of 7.96, and a kurtosis of 2.36. However, we strongly recommend that all investors undertake further analysis of VMware Inc to ensure that all market information is disseminated and aligns with the current expectations about VMware's upside potential. Understanding different
market volatility trends can often assist investors in timing the market. Proper utilization of volatility indicators enables traders to gauge VMware's stock risk in relation to market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The elevated level of volatility that accompanies bear markets can directly affect
VMware's stock price, adding stress to investors as they witness the value of their shares decline.
This typically prompts investors to rebalance their portfolios by purchasing different stocks as prices drop. In conclusion, VMware Inc. (VMW) is currently valued at a market price of
164.35, which is below its real value of
177.09 as per our analysis. This suggests that the stock is undervalued and has potential for growth. However, investors should also consider the possible downside price of 159.72 and the analyst's lowest estimated target price of 142.5. The overall consensus among analysts is to 'Hold' the stock, indicating a neutral outlook. With the fiscal year ending in January, investors should closely monitor the stock's performance in the coming months. While the stock's price may not necessarily go out of control in October, it is certainly poised for potential growth based on its current valuation. .
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Aina Ster is a Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board. Aina delivers weekly perspective on ongoing market and economic trends, analysis and tips from predictive analysis to forecasting across various financial instruments.
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