New Trend (China) Market Value
| 300532 Stock | 12.11 0.48 3.81% |
| Symbol | New |
New Trend 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to New Trend's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of New Trend.
| 11/17/2024 |
| 12/17/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in New Trend on November 17, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding New Trend International or generate 0.0% return on investment in New Trend over 30 days. New Trend is related to or competes with Shaanxi Broadcast, Metro Investment, Henan Shuanghui, Zhongrun Resources, Heilongjiang Transport, Luyin Investment, and Shaanxi Energy. More
New Trend Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure New Trend's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess New Trend International upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.96 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0853 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 32.39 | |||
| Value At Risk | (7.10) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.47 |
New Trend Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for New Trend's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as New Trend's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use New Trend historical prices to predict the future New Trend's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0802 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4871 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0857 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1068 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (3.99) |
New Trend International Backtested Returns
New Trend appears to be slightly risky, given 3 months investment horizon. New Trend International has Sharpe Ratio of 0.13, which conveys that the firm had a 0.13% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing New Trend's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.68% is justified by implied risk. Please exercise New Trend's Mean Deviation of 3.29, downside deviation of 3.96, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0802 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, New Trend holds a performance score of 10. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.12, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning New Trend are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, New Trend is likely to outperform the market. Please check New Trend's jensen alpha, sortino ratio, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the total risk alpha and treynor ratio , to make a quick decision on whether New Trend's current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.02 |
Very weak reverse predictability
New Trend International has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between New Trend time series from 17th of November 2024 to 2nd of December 2024 and 2nd of December 2024 to 17th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of New Trend International price movement. The serial correlation of -0.02 indicates that only 2.0% of current New Trend price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.02 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.13 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.09 |
New Trend International lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is New Trend stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting New Trend's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of New Trend returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that New Trend has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
New Trend regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If New Trend stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if New Trend stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in New Trend stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
New Trend Lagged Returns
When evaluating New Trend's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of New Trend stock have on its future price. New Trend autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, New Trend autocorrelation shows the relationship between New Trend stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in New Trend International.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in New Stock
New Trend financial ratios help investors to determine whether New Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in New with respect to the benefits of owning New Trend security.