OBI Pharma (Taiwan) Market Value
| 4174 Stock | TWD 60.30 0.50 0.82% |
| Symbol | OBI |
OBI Pharma 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to OBI Pharma's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of OBI Pharma.
| 11/12/2024 |
| 12/12/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in OBI Pharma on November 12, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding OBI Pharma or generate 0.0% return on investment in OBI Pharma over 30 days. OBI Pharma is related to or competes with TaiMed Biologics, PharmaEngine, Medigen Biotechnology, and TTY Biopharm. OBI Pharma, Inc., a bio-pharma company, develops and licenses novel therapeutic agents for unmet medical needs against c... More
OBI Pharma Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure OBI Pharma's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess OBI Pharma upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.23) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.88 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.39) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.42 |
OBI Pharma Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for OBI Pharma's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as OBI Pharma's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use OBI Pharma historical prices to predict the future OBI Pharma's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.11) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.27) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.66) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.5594 |
OBI Pharma Backtested Returns
OBI Pharma maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of -0.16, which implies the company had a -0.16% return per unit of volatility over the last 3 months. OBI Pharma exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check OBI Pharma's variance of 3.96, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.5694 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The firm holds a Beta of -0.61, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning OBI Pharma are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, OBI Pharma is likely to outperform the market. At this point, OBI Pharma has a negative expected return of -0.33%. Please make sure to check OBI Pharma's standard deviation, jensen alpha, and the relationship between the coefficient of variation and information ratio , to decide if OBI Pharma performance from the past will be repeated in the future.
Auto-correlation | -0.37 |
Poor reverse predictability
OBI Pharma has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between OBI Pharma time series from 12th of November 2024 to 27th of November 2024 and 27th of November 2024 to 12th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of OBI Pharma price movement. The serial correlation of -0.37 indicates that just about 37.0% of current OBI Pharma price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.37 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.42 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.35 |
OBI Pharma lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is OBI Pharma stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting OBI Pharma's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of OBI Pharma returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that OBI Pharma has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
OBI Pharma regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If OBI Pharma stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if OBI Pharma stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in OBI Pharma stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
OBI Pharma Lagged Returns
When evaluating OBI Pharma's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of OBI Pharma stock have on its future price. OBI Pharma autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, OBI Pharma autocorrelation shows the relationship between OBI Pharma stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in OBI Pharma.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with OBI Pharma
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if OBI Pharma position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in OBI Pharma will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with OBI Stock
Moving against OBI Stock
| 0.73 | 1449 | Chia Her Industrial Split | PairCorr |
| 0.73 | 0050 | YuantaP shares Taiwan | PairCorr |
| 0.72 | 0057 | Fubon MSCI Taiwan | PairCorr |
| 0.65 | 4162 | PharmaEngine | PairCorr |
| 0.63 | 2609 | Yang Ming Marine | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to OBI Pharma could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace OBI Pharma when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back OBI Pharma - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling OBI Pharma to buy it.
The correlation of OBI Pharma is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as OBI Pharma moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if OBI Pharma moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for OBI Pharma can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for OBI Stock Analysis
When running OBI Pharma's price analysis, check to measure OBI Pharma's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy OBI Pharma is operating at the current time. Most of OBI Pharma's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of OBI Pharma's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move OBI Pharma's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of OBI Pharma to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.