WINSON Machinery (Taiwan) Market Value
| 4538 Stock | TWD 19.65 0.50 2.48% |
| Symbol | WINSON |
WINSON Machinery 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to WINSON Machinery's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of WINSON Machinery.
| 12/18/2023 |
| 12/12/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in WINSON Machinery on December 18, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding WINSON Machinery Co or generate 0.0% return on investment in WINSON Machinery over 360 days. WINSON Machinery is related to or competes with Tainan Spinning, Lealea Enterprise, China Petrochemical, Ruentex Development, WiseChip Semiconductor, Novatek Microelectronics, and Leader Electronics. More
WINSON Machinery Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure WINSON Machinery's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess WINSON Machinery Co upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.1) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 18.64 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.68) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.28 |
WINSON Machinery Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for WINSON Machinery's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as WINSON Machinery's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use WINSON Machinery historical prices to predict the future WINSON Machinery's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.16) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.56) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.67) |
WINSON Machinery Backtested Returns
WINSON Machinery shows Sharpe Ratio of -0.14, which attests that the company had a -0.14% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. WINSON Machinery exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out WINSON Machinery's Standard Deviation of 2.65, risk adjusted performance of (0.03), and Mean Deviation of 1.52 to validate the risk estimate we provide. The firm maintains a market beta of 0.21, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, WINSON Machinery's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding WINSON Machinery is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, WINSON Machinery has a negative expected return of -0.31%. Please make sure to check out WINSON Machinery's standard deviation, total risk alpha, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the jensen alpha and treynor ratio , to decide if WINSON Machinery performance from the past will be repeated at future time.
Auto-correlation | 0.42 |
Average predictability
WINSON Machinery Co has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between WINSON Machinery time series from 18th of December 2023 to 15th of June 2024 and 15th of June 2024 to 12th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of WINSON Machinery price movement. The serial correlation of 0.42 indicates that just about 42.0% of current WINSON Machinery price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.42 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.08 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.83 |
WINSON Machinery lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is WINSON Machinery stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting WINSON Machinery's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of WINSON Machinery returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that WINSON Machinery has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
WINSON Machinery regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If WINSON Machinery stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if WINSON Machinery stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in WINSON Machinery stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
WINSON Machinery Lagged Returns
When evaluating WINSON Machinery's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of WINSON Machinery stock have on its future price. WINSON Machinery autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, WINSON Machinery autocorrelation shows the relationship between WINSON Machinery stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in WINSON Machinery Co.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with WINSON Machinery
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if WINSON Machinery position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in WINSON Machinery will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with WINSON Stock
Moving against WINSON Stock
| 0.78 | 0050 | YuantaP shares Taiwan | PairCorr |
| 0.71 | 0057 | Fubon MSCI Taiwan | PairCorr |
| 0.64 | 0053 | YuantaP shares Taiwan | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to WINSON Machinery could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace WINSON Machinery when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back WINSON Machinery - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling WINSON Machinery Co to buy it.
The correlation of WINSON Machinery is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as WINSON Machinery moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if WINSON Machinery moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for WINSON Machinery can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for WINSON Stock Analysis
When running WINSON Machinery's price analysis, check to measure WINSON Machinery's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy WINSON Machinery is operating at the current time. Most of WINSON Machinery's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of WINSON Machinery's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move WINSON Machinery's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of WINSON Machinery to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.