Traton SE (Germany) Market Value
| 8TRA Stock | EUR 27.05 1.05 3.74% |
| Symbol | Traton |
Traton SE 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Traton SE's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Traton SE.
| 08/01/2023 |
| 12/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Traton SE on August 1, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Traton SE or generate 0.0% return on investment in Traton SE over 510 days. Traton SE is related to or competes with Caterpillar, Caterpillar, Deere, AB Volvo, VOLVO B, Daimler Truck, and KOMATSU. It operates through Industrial Business and Financial Services segments More
Traton SE Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Traton SE's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Traton SE upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.1 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.88) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.58 |
Traton SE Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Traton SE's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Traton SE's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Traton SE historical prices to predict the future Traton SE's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.02) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.11) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.16) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.14) |
Traton SE Backtested Returns
Traton SE owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0419, which indicates the firm had a -0.0419% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Traton SE exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Traton SE's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.02), coefficient of variation of (2,626), and Variance of 5.05 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.67, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Traton SE's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Traton SE is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Traton SE has a negative expected return of -0.0948%. Please make sure to validate Traton SE's mean deviation, standard deviation, total risk alpha, as well as the relationship between the coefficient of variation and jensen alpha , to decide if Traton SE performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.23 |
Weak reverse predictability
Traton SE has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Traton SE time series from 1st of August 2023 to 12th of April 2024 and 12th of April 2024 to 23rd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Traton SE price movement. The serial correlation of -0.23 indicates that over 23.0% of current Traton SE price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.23 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.55 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2.34 |
Traton SE lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Traton SE stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Traton SE's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Traton SE returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Traton SE has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Traton SE regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Traton SE stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Traton SE stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Traton SE stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Traton SE Lagged Returns
When evaluating Traton SE's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Traton SE stock have on its future price. Traton SE autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Traton SE autocorrelation shows the relationship between Traton SE stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Traton SE.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Traton Stock
Traton SE financial ratios help investors to determine whether Traton Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Traton with respect to the benefits of owning Traton SE security.