American Express (Germany) Market Value
| AEC1 Stock | EUR 287.95 0.20 0.07% |
| Symbol | American |
American Express 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to American Express' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of American Express.
| 11/19/2023 |
| 12/13/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in American Express on November 19, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding American Express or generate 0.0% return on investment in American Express over 390 days. American Express is related to or competes with Natural Health, Bausch Health, United Rentals, SWISS WATER, VARIOUS EATERIES, and Global Ship. American Express Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides charge and credit payment card products, and travel-r... More
American Express Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure American Express' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess American Express upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1338 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.36 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.93) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.71 |
American Express Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for American Express' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as American Express' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use American Express historical prices to predict the future American Express' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1476 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1824 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0902 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1807 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2147 |
American Express Backtested Returns
American Express appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. American Express secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.18, which signifies that the company had a 0.18% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for American Express, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of American Express' risk adjusted performance of 0.1476, and Mean Deviation of 1.07 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, American Express holds a performance score of 14. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.62, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, American Express will likely underperform. Please check American Express' mean deviation, downside deviation, standard deviation, as well as the relationship between the semi deviation and coefficient of variation , to make a quick decision on whether American Express' price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.83 |
Very good predictability
American Express has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between American Express time series from 19th of November 2023 to 1st of June 2024 and 1st of June 2024 to 13th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of American Express price movement. The serial correlation of 0.83 indicates that around 83.0% of current American Express price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.83 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.91 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 563.55 |
American Express lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is American Express stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting American Express' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of American Express returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that American Express has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
American Express regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If American Express stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if American Express stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in American Express stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
American Express Lagged Returns
When evaluating American Express' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of American Express stock have on its future price. American Express autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, American Express autocorrelation shows the relationship between American Express stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in American Express.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in American Stock
When determining whether American Express is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if American Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about American Express Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about American Express Stock:Check out American Express Correlation, American Express Volatility and American Express Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on American Express. For more detail on how to invest in American Stock please use our How to Invest in American Express guide.You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
American Express technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.