PT Chemstar (Indonesia) Market Value
| CHEM Stock | 68.00 1.00 1.45% |
| Symbol | CHEM |
PT Chemstar 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to PT Chemstar's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of PT Chemstar.
| 11/15/2024 |
| 12/15/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in PT Chemstar on November 15, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding PT Chemstar Indonesia or generate 0.0% return on investment in PT Chemstar over 30 days. PT Chemstar is related to or competes with Dayamitra Telekomunikasi, Cisarua Mountain, PT Bukalapak, Sumber Alfaria, and Adaro Minerals. More
PT Chemstar Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure PT Chemstar's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess PT Chemstar Indonesia upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.19) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.02 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.82) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.82 |
PT Chemstar Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for PT Chemstar's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as PT Chemstar's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use PT Chemstar historical prices to predict the future PT Chemstar's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.09) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.27) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.49) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.36) |
PT Chemstar Indonesia Backtested Returns
PT Chemstar Indonesia retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of -0.12, which implies the firm had a -0.12% return per unit of price deviation over the last 3 months. PT Chemstar exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check PT Chemstar's market risk adjusted performance of (1.35), and Information Ratio of (0.19) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The company owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.19, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, PT Chemstar's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding PT Chemstar is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, PT Chemstar Indonesia has a negative expected return of -0.22%. Please make sure to check PT Chemstar's market risk adjusted performance, coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, as well as the relationship between the mean deviation and standard deviation , to decide if PT Chemstar Indonesia performance from the past will be repeated at some future date.
Auto-correlation | -0.39 |
Poor reverse predictability
PT Chemstar Indonesia has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between PT Chemstar time series from 15th of November 2024 to 30th of November 2024 and 30th of November 2024 to 15th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of PT Chemstar Indonesia price movement. The serial correlation of -0.39 indicates that just about 39.0% of current PT Chemstar price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.39 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.11 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.17 |
PT Chemstar Indonesia lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is PT Chemstar stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting PT Chemstar's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of PT Chemstar returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that PT Chemstar has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
PT Chemstar regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If PT Chemstar stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if PT Chemstar stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in PT Chemstar stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
PT Chemstar Lagged Returns
When evaluating PT Chemstar's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of PT Chemstar stock have on its future price. PT Chemstar autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, PT Chemstar autocorrelation shows the relationship between PT Chemstar stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in PT Chemstar Indonesia.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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PT Chemstar financial ratios help investors to determine whether CHEM Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in CHEM with respect to the benefits of owning PT Chemstar security.