EFU General (Pakistan) Market Value
| EFUG Stock | 122.98 1.84 1.47% |
| Symbol | EFU |
EFU General 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to EFU General's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of EFU General.
| 12/20/2022 |
| 12/09/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in EFU General on December 20, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding EFU General Insurance or generate 0.0% return on investment in EFU General over 720 days. EFU General is related to or competes with Unity Foods, Premier Insurance, Askari General, TPL Insurance, Shaheen Insurance, Hi Tech, and Unilever Pakistan. More
EFU General Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure EFU General's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess EFU General Insurance upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.82 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1162 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 17.95 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.28) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.09 |
EFU General Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for EFU General's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as EFU General's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use EFU General historical prices to predict the future EFU General's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.122 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.6025 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.09) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1138 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.98) |
EFU General Insurance Backtested Returns
EFU General appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. EFU General Insurance secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.14, which denotes the company had a 0.14% return per unit of volatility over the last 3 months. By examining EFU General's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.54% is justified by implied risk. Please utilize EFU General's Downside Deviation of 3.82, mean deviation of 2.59, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (1.97) to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, EFU General holds a performance score of 11. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.28, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning EFU General are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, EFU General is likely to outperform the market. Please check EFU General's sortino ratio, maximum drawdown, potential upside, as well as the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to make a quick decision on whether EFU General's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.13 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
EFU General Insurance has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between EFU General time series from 20th of December 2022 to 15th of December 2023 and 15th of December 2023 to 9th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of EFU General Insurance price movement. The serial correlation of -0.13 indicates that less than 13.0% of current EFU General price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.13 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.23 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 12.03 |
EFU General Insurance lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is EFU General stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting EFU General's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of EFU General returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that EFU General has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
EFU General regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If EFU General stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if EFU General stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in EFU General stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
EFU General Lagged Returns
When evaluating EFU General's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of EFU General stock have on its future price. EFU General autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, EFU General autocorrelation shows the relationship between EFU General stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in EFU General Insurance.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with EFU General
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if EFU General position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in EFU General will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with EFU Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to EFU General could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace EFU General when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back EFU General - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling EFU General Insurance to buy it.
The correlation of EFU General is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as EFU General moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if EFU General Insurance moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for EFU General can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in EFU Stock
EFU General financial ratios help investors to determine whether EFU Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in EFU with respect to the benefits of owning EFU General security.