Orange County Bancorp Stock Market Value
| OBT Stock | USD 59.64 0.59 1.00% |
| Symbol | Orange |
Orange County Bancorp Price To Book Ratio
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Orange County. If investors know Orange will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Orange County listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.65) | Dividend Share 0.92 | Earnings Share 5.12 | Revenue Per Share 17.378 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.20) |
The market value of Orange County Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Orange that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Orange County's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Orange County's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Orange County's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Orange County's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Orange County's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Orange County is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Orange County's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Orange County 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Orange County's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Orange County.
| 06/08/2023 |
| 11/29/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Orange County on June 8, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Orange County Bancorp or generate 0.0% return on investment in Orange County over 540 days. Orange County is related to or competes with KeyCorp, Comerica, First Horizon, Western Alliance, Fifth Third, Huntington Bancshares, and US Bancorp. Orange County Bancorp, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides commercial and consumer banking products and services, a... More
Orange County Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Orange County's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Orange County Bancorp upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.98 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 15.06 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.96) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.85 |
Orange County Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Orange County's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Orange County's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Orange County historical prices to predict the future Orange County's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0244 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.21) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.40) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0244 |
Orange County Bancorp Backtested Returns
Currently, Orange County Bancorp is very steady. Orange County Bancorp maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.0231, which implies the firm had a 0.0231% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Orange County Bancorp, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please check Orange County's Semi Deviation of 2.87, coefficient of variation of 4543.3, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0244 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0717%. Orange County has a performance score of 1 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company holds a Beta of 2.36, which implies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Orange County will likely underperform. Orange County Bancorp right now holds a risk of 3.1%. Please check Orange County Bancorp standard deviation, expected short fall, period momentum indicator, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and rate of daily change , to decide if Orange County Bancorp will be following its historical price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.55 |
Modest predictability
Orange County Bancorp has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Orange County time series from 8th of June 2023 to 4th of March 2024 and 4th of March 2024 to 29th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Orange County Bancorp price movement. The serial correlation of 0.55 indicates that about 55.0% of current Orange County price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.55 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.44 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 33.84 |
Orange County Bancorp lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Orange County stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Orange County's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Orange County returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Orange County has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Orange County regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Orange County stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Orange County stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Orange County stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Orange County Lagged Returns
When evaluating Orange County's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Orange County stock have on its future price. Orange County autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Orange County autocorrelation shows the relationship between Orange County stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Orange County Bancorp.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for Orange Stock Analysis
When running Orange County's price analysis, check to measure Orange County's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Orange County is operating at the current time. Most of Orange County's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Orange County's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Orange County's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Orange County to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.