Pertamina Geothermal (Indonesia) Market Value
| PGEO Stock | 955.00 5.00 0.52% |
| Symbol | Pertamina |
Pertamina Geothermal 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Pertamina Geothermal's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Pertamina Geothermal.
| 12/27/2022 |
| 12/16/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Pertamina Geothermal on December 27, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Pertamina Geothermal Energy or generate 0.0% return on investment in Pertamina Geothermal over 720 days.
Pertamina Geothermal Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Pertamina Geothermal's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Pertamina Geothermal Energy upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.24) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.33 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.14) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.14 |
Pertamina Geothermal Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Pertamina Geothermal's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Pertamina Geothermal's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Pertamina Geothermal historical prices to predict the future Pertamina Geothermal's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.12) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.27) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.43) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.35) |
Pertamina Geothermal Backtested Returns
Pertamina Geothermal maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of -0.16, which implies the firm had a -0.16% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Pertamina Geothermal exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check Pertamina Geothermal's Coefficient Of Variation of (592.70), variance of 2.1, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.12) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The company holds a Beta of 0.19, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Pertamina Geothermal's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Pertamina Geothermal is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Pertamina Geothermal has a negative expected return of -0.24%. Please make sure to check Pertamina Geothermal's skewness, accumulation distribution, and the relationship between the potential upside and kurtosis , to decide if Pertamina Geothermal performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.26 |
Poor predictability
Pertamina Geothermal Energy has poor predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Pertamina Geothermal time series from 27th of December 2022 to 22nd of December 2023 and 22nd of December 2023 to 16th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Pertamina Geothermal price movement. The serial correlation of 0.26 indicates that nearly 26.0% of current Pertamina Geothermal price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.26 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.09 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2764.96 |
Pertamina Geothermal lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Pertamina Geothermal stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Pertamina Geothermal's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Pertamina Geothermal returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Pertamina Geothermal has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Pertamina Geothermal regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Pertamina Geothermal stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Pertamina Geothermal stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Pertamina Geothermal stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Pertamina Geothermal Lagged Returns
When evaluating Pertamina Geothermal's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Pertamina Geothermal stock have on its future price. Pertamina Geothermal autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Pertamina Geothermal autocorrelation shows the relationship between Pertamina Geothermal stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Pertamina Geothermal Energy.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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