UPM Kymmene (Germany) Market Value
| RPL Stock | EUR 25.91 0.12 0.46% |
| Symbol | UPM |
UPM Kymmene 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to UPM Kymmene's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of UPM Kymmene.
| 12/29/2022 |
| 12/18/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in UPM Kymmene on December 29, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding UPM Kymmene Oyj or generate 0.0% return on investment in UPM Kymmene over 720 days. UPM Kymmene is related to or competes with Stora Enso, Superior Plus, Origin Agritech, INTUITIVE SURGICAL, Intel, Reliance Steel, and Rolls Royce. It operates through UPM Biorefining, UPM Energy, UPM Raflatac, UPM Specialty Papers, UPM Communication Papers, UPM Plywo... More
UPM Kymmene Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure UPM Kymmene's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess UPM Kymmene Oyj upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.11) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.5 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.16) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.49 |
UPM Kymmene Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for UPM Kymmene's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as UPM Kymmene's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use UPM Kymmene historical prices to predict the future UPM Kymmene's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.06) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.14) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.17) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (2.18) |
UPM Kymmene Oyj Backtested Returns
UPM Kymmene Oyj owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.12, which indicates the firm had a -0.12% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. UPM Kymmene Oyj exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate UPM Kymmene's variance of 2.12, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.06) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.0624, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, UPM Kymmene's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding UPM Kymmene is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, UPM Kymmene Oyj has a negative expected return of -0.17%. Please make sure to validate UPM Kymmene's kurtosis, day typical price, and the relationship between the potential upside and rate of daily change , to decide if UPM Kymmene Oyj performance from the past will be repeated at some future point.
Auto-correlation | -0.53 |
Good reverse predictability
UPM Kymmene Oyj has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between UPM Kymmene time series from 29th of December 2022 to 24th of December 2023 and 24th of December 2023 to 18th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of UPM Kymmene Oyj price movement. The serial correlation of -0.53 indicates that about 53.0% of current UPM Kymmene price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.53 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.03 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 5.78 |
UPM Kymmene Oyj lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is UPM Kymmene stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting UPM Kymmene's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of UPM Kymmene returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that UPM Kymmene has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
UPM Kymmene regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If UPM Kymmene stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if UPM Kymmene stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in UPM Kymmene stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
UPM Kymmene Lagged Returns
When evaluating UPM Kymmene's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of UPM Kymmene stock have on its future price. UPM Kymmene autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, UPM Kymmene autocorrelation shows the relationship between UPM Kymmene stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in UPM Kymmene Oyj.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in UPM Stock
UPM Kymmene financial ratios help investors to determine whether UPM Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in UPM with respect to the benefits of owning UPM Kymmene security.