Refinaria (Brazil) Market Value
| RPMG3 Stock | BRL 2.69 0.25 10.25% |
| Symbol | Refinaria |
Refinaria 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Refinaria's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Refinaria.
| 12/13/2022 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Refinaria on December 13, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Refinaria de Petrleos or generate 0.0% return on investment in Refinaria over 720 days. Refinaria is related to or competes with Lupatech, Recrusul, OSX Brasil, and Paranapanema. Refinaria de Petrleos de Manguinhos S.A. refines petroleum products in Brazil More
Refinaria Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Refinaria's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Refinaria de Petrleos upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.09) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.13 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.61) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.11 |
Refinaria Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Refinaria's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Refinaria's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Refinaria historical prices to predict the future Refinaria's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.02) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.1) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.57) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.7278 |
Refinaria de Petrleos Backtested Returns
Refinaria de Petrleos maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of -0.0392, which implies the firm had a -0.0392% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Refinaria de Petrleos exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check Refinaria's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.02), variance of 7.28, and Coefficient Of Variation of (2,554) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The company holds a Beta of -0.16, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Refinaria are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Refinaria is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Refinaria de Petrleos has a negative expected return of -0.11%. Please make sure to check Refinaria's jensen alpha, treynor ratio, value at risk, as well as the relationship between the total risk alpha and maximum drawdown , to decide if Refinaria de Petrleos performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.73 |
Good predictability
Refinaria de Petrleos has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Refinaria time series from 13th of December 2022 to 8th of December 2023 and 8th of December 2023 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Refinaria de Petrleos price movement. The serial correlation of 0.73 indicates that around 73.0% of current Refinaria price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.73 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.77 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.16 |
Refinaria de Petrleos lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Refinaria stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Refinaria's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Refinaria returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Refinaria has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Refinaria regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Refinaria stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Refinaria stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Refinaria stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Refinaria Lagged Returns
When evaluating Refinaria's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Refinaria stock have on its future price. Refinaria autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Refinaria autocorrelation shows the relationship between Refinaria stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Refinaria de Petrleos.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Refinaria Stock Analysis
When running Refinaria's price analysis, check to measure Refinaria's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Refinaria is operating at the current time. Most of Refinaria's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Refinaria's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Refinaria's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Refinaria to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.