TRANSCORP HOTELS (Nigeria) Market Value
| TRANSCOHOT | 106.00 0.00 0.00% |
| Symbol | TRANSCORP |
TRANSCORP HOTELS 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to TRANSCORP HOTELS's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of TRANSCORP HOTELS.
| 12/24/2022 |
| 12/13/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in TRANSCORP HOTELS on December 24, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC or generate 0.0% return on investment in TRANSCORP HOTELS over 720 days.
TRANSCORP HOTELS Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure TRANSCORP HOTELS's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | 0.0991 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.28 |
TRANSCORP HOTELS Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for TRANSCORP HOTELS's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as TRANSCORP HOTELS's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use TRANSCORP HOTELS historical prices to predict the future TRANSCORP HOTELS's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.132 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2459 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0412 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 9.9 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of TRANSCORP HOTELS's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC Backtested Returns
TRANSCORP HOTELS appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.18, which indicates the firm had a 0.18% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found seventeen technical indicators for TRANSCORP HOTELS, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please review TRANSCORP HOTELS's standard deviation of 1.48, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.132 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, TRANSCORP HOTELS holds a performance score of 14. The entity owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.0251, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, TRANSCORP HOTELS's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding TRANSCORP HOTELS is expected to be smaller as well. Please check TRANSCORP HOTELS's mean deviation, jensen alpha, as well as the relationship between the Jensen Alpha and day median price , to make a quick decision on whether TRANSCORP HOTELS's current price history will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.19 |
Very weak predictability
TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC has very weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between TRANSCORP HOTELS time series from 24th of December 2022 to 19th of December 2023 and 19th of December 2023 to 13th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC price movement. The serial correlation of 0.19 indicates that over 19.0% of current TRANSCORP HOTELS price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.19 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.18 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 69.77 |
TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is TRANSCORP HOTELS stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting TRANSCORP HOTELS's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of TRANSCORP HOTELS returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that TRANSCORP HOTELS has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
TRANSCORP HOTELS regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If TRANSCORP HOTELS stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if TRANSCORP HOTELS stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in TRANSCORP HOTELS stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
TRANSCORP HOTELS Lagged Returns
When evaluating TRANSCORP HOTELS's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of TRANSCORP HOTELS stock have on its future price. TRANSCORP HOTELS autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, TRANSCORP HOTELS autocorrelation shows the relationship between TRANSCORP HOTELS stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |