Transkon Jaya (Indonesia) Market Value
| TRJA Stock | IDR 181.00 1.00 0.55% |
| Symbol | Transkon |
Transkon Jaya 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Transkon Jaya's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Transkon Jaya.
| 07/01/2024 |
| 12/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Transkon Jaya on July 1, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Transkon Jaya Pt or generate 0.0% return on investment in Transkon Jaya over 180 days. Transkon Jaya is related to or competes with Pelayaran Nelly, Guna Timur, Batavia Prosperindo, PT Trimuda, and Prima Globalindo. PT Transkon Jaya Tbk engages in the rental and lease without option rights for cars, buses, trucks, and others More
Transkon Jaya Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Transkon Jaya's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Transkon Jaya Pt upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.16) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.36 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.60) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.11 |
Transkon Jaya Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Transkon Jaya's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Transkon Jaya's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Transkon Jaya historical prices to predict the future Transkon Jaya's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.10) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.20) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.24) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 7.14 |
Transkon Jaya Pt Backtested Returns
Transkon Jaya Pt owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0862, which indicates the firm had a -0.0862% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Transkon Jaya Pt exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Transkon Jaya's Coefficient Of Variation of (740.71), risk adjusted performance of (0.10), and Variance of 2.02 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of -0.0283, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Transkon Jaya are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Transkon Jaya is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Transkon Jaya Pt has a negative expected return of -0.12%. Please make sure to validate Transkon Jaya's jensen alpha, treynor ratio, and the relationship between the standard deviation and total risk alpha , to decide if Transkon Jaya Pt performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.74 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Transkon Jaya Pt has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Transkon Jaya time series from 1st of July 2024 to 29th of September 2024 and 29th of September 2024 to 28th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Transkon Jaya Pt price movement. The serial correlation of -0.74 indicates that around 74.0% of current Transkon Jaya price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.74 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.63 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 28.25 |
Transkon Jaya Pt lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Transkon Jaya stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Transkon Jaya's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Transkon Jaya returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Transkon Jaya has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Transkon Jaya regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Transkon Jaya stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Transkon Jaya stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Transkon Jaya stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Transkon Jaya Lagged Returns
When evaluating Transkon Jaya's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Transkon Jaya stock have on its future price. Transkon Jaya autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Transkon Jaya autocorrelation shows the relationship between Transkon Jaya stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Transkon Jaya Pt.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Transkon Jaya financial ratios help investors to determine whether Transkon Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Transkon with respect to the benefits of owning Transkon Jaya security.