Universal Music (Netherlands) Market Value
| UMG Stock | 24.90 0.49 2.01% |
| Symbol | Universal |
Universal Music 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Universal Music's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Universal Music.
| 06/21/2024 |
| 12/18/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Universal Music on June 21, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Universal Music Group or generate 0.0% return on investment in Universal Music over 180 days. Universal Music is related to or competes with Vivendi SA, Prosus NV, Pershing Square, Adyen NV, and TotalEnergies. More
Universal Music Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Universal Music's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Universal Music Group upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0538 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.9 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.87) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.37 |
Universal Music Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Universal Music's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Universal Music's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Universal Music historical prices to predict the future Universal Music's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0831 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1313 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.026 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0604 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.94) |
Universal Music Group Backtested Returns
Currently, Universal Music Group is very steady. Universal Music Group owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.12, which indicates the firm had a 0.12% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Universal Music Group, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please validate Universal Music's Semi Deviation of 0.9447, coefficient of variation of 917.71, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0831 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.14%. Universal Music has a performance score of 9 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has a beta of -0.13, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Universal Music are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Universal Music is likely to outperform the market. Universal Music Group right now has a risk of 1.23%. Please validate Universal Music total risk alpha, treynor ratio, and the relationship between the jensen alpha and sortino ratio , to decide if Universal Music will be following its existing price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.11 |
Insignificant predictability
Universal Music Group has insignificant predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Universal Music time series from 21st of June 2024 to 19th of September 2024 and 19th of September 2024 to 18th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Universal Music Group price movement. The serial correlation of 0.11 indicates that less than 11.0% of current Universal Music price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.11 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.04 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.32 |
Universal Music Group lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Universal Music stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Universal Music's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Universal Music returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Universal Music has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Universal Music regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Universal Music stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Universal Music stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Universal Music stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Universal Music Lagged Returns
When evaluating Universal Music's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Universal Music stock have on its future price. Universal Music autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Universal Music autocorrelation shows the relationship between Universal Music stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Universal Music Group.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for Universal Stock Analysis
When running Universal Music's price analysis, check to measure Universal Music's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Universal Music is operating at the current time. Most of Universal Music's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Universal Music's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Universal Music's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Universal Music to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.