Ares Capital Stock Price Prediction
| ARCC Stock | USD 22.15 0.14 0.64% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
58
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.28) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.59 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.3493 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.2045 | Wall Street Target Price 22.4643 |
Using Ares Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ares Capital from the perspective of Ares Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Ares Capital Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ares Capital's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ares. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ares can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ares Capital. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ares Capital's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ares Capital.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ares Capital to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ares because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Ares Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 22.17 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Ares |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ares Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ares Capital After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ares Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ares Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ares Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ares Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ares Capital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ares Capital's historical news coverage. Ares Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 21.49 and 22.85, respectively. We have considered Ares Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ares Capital is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ares Capital is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ares Capital Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ares Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ares Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ares Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 0.68 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 11 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
22.15 | 22.17 | 0.09 |
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Ares Capital Hype Timeline
Ares Capital is presently traded for 22.15. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Ares is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 22.17 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.12%. The volatility of related hype on Ares Capital is about 1088.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 22.16. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.08 B. Net Income was 1.52 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.1 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Ares Capital Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Ares Capital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ares Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ares Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how Ares Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ares Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TPVG | Triplepoint Venture Growth | 0.20 | 5 per month | 1.21 | 0.06 | 3.33 | (2.20) | 11.85 | |
| TSLX | Sixth Street Specialty | (0.17) | 6 per month | 0.67 | (0.09) | 1.19 | (1.04) | 3.63 | |
| MAIN | Main Street Capital | (0.07) | 7 per month | 0.27 | 0.13 | 1.49 | (1.28) | 3.02 | |
| CSWC | Capital Southwest | 0.24 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.67 | (1.46) | 8.65 | |
| GAIN | Gladstone Investment | 0.21 | 8 per month | 1.14 | 0.06 | 1.76 | (1.94) | 6.95 | |
| PFLT | PennantPark Floating Rate | (0.05) | 7 per month | 1.00 | (0.10) | 1.09 | (1.13) | 5.12 | |
| PSEC | Prospect Capital | 0.19 | 8 per month | 2.98 | (0.06) | 2.67 | (2.03) | 19.23 | |
| HTGC | Hercules Capital | (0.19) | 9 per month | 0.90 | (0.08) | 1.56 | (1.54) | 5.01 | |
| GLAD | Gladstone Capital | 0.23 | 9 per month | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1.92 | (0.87) | 4.12 | |
| HRZN | Horizon Technology Finance | (0.13) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.33) | 0.88 | (2.10) | 5.65 | |
| SCM | Stellus Capital Investment | 0.06 | 7 per month | 0.63 | (0.1) | 1.23 | (1.30) | 4.52 | |
| CGBD | Carlyle Secured Lending | 0.23 | 7 per month | 0.97 | (0.04) | 1.50 | (1.47) | 4.68 |
Ares Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ares price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ares using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ares charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Ares Capital Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Ares Capital stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ares Capital, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ares Capital based on analysis of Ares Capital hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ares Capital's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ares Capital's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0734 | 0.0992 | 0.0929 | 0.072 | Price To Sales Ratio | 5.63 | 12.41 | 5.32 | 5.06 |
Story Coverage note for Ares Capital
The number of cover stories for Ares Capital depends on current market conditions and Ares Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ares Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ares Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ares Capital Short Properties
Ares Capital's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ares Capital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ares Capital often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ares Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ares Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 575 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 535 M |
Complementary Tools for Ares Stock analysis
When running Ares Capital's price analysis, check to measure Ares Capital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ares Capital is operating at the current time. Most of Ares Capital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ares Capital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ares Capital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ares Capital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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