Main Street Capital Stock Price Prediction
| MAIN Stock | USD 55.47 0.47 0.85% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
60
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.139 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.02 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.106 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.986 | Wall Street Target Price 49.6 |
Using Main Street hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Main Street Capital from the perspective of Main Street response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Main Street Capital Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Main Street's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Main. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Main can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Main Street Capital. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Main Street's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Main Street.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Main Street to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Main because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Main Street after-hype prediction price | USD 55.46 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Main |
Main Street After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Main Street at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Main Street or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Main Street, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Main Street Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Main Street's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Main Street's historical news coverage. Main Street's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 54.76 and 56.16, respectively. We have considered Main Street's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Main Street is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Main Street Capital is based on 3 months time horizon.
Main Street Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Main Street is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Main Street backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Main Street, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 0.70 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 7 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
55.47 | 55.46 | 0.02 |
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Main Street Hype Timeline
Main Street Capital is now traded for 55.47. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Main is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 55.46. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.21%. The volatility of related hype on Main Street is about 976.74%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 55.49. About 23.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.8. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Main Street Capital has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.09. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.53. The firm last dividend was issued on the 6th of December 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Main Street Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Main Street Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Main Street's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Main Street's future price movements. Getting to know how Main Street's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Main Street may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GLAD | Gladstone Capital | 0.23 | 9 per month | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1.92 | (0.87) | 4.12 | |
| PFLT | PennantPark Floating Rate | (0.05) | 7 per month | 1.00 | (0.10) | 1.09 | (1.13) | 5.12 | |
| HRZN | Horizon Technology Finance | (0.13) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.33) | 0.88 | (2.10) | 5.65 | |
| PSEC | Prospect Capital | 0.19 | 8 per month | 2.98 | (0.06) | 2.67 | (2.03) | 19.23 | |
| HTGC | Hercules Capital | (0.19) | 9 per month | 0.90 | (0.08) | 1.56 | (1.54) | 5.01 | |
| FSK | FS KKR Capital | 0.08 | 8 per month | 0.46 | 0.09 | 1.41 | (1.08) | 3.48 | |
| GAIN | Gladstone Investment | 0.21 | 8 per month | 1.14 | 0.06 | 1.76 | (1.94) | 6.95 | |
| SCM | Stellus Capital Investment | 0.06 | 7 per month | 0.63 | (0.1) | 1.23 | (1.30) | 4.52 | |
| ARCC | Ares Capital | 0.19 | 11 per month | 0.44 | (0.02) | 1.10 | (0.96) | 3.08 | |
| TPVG | Triplepoint Venture Growth | 0.20 | 5 per month | 1.21 | 0.06 | 3.33 | (2.20) | 11.85 | |
| TSLX | Sixth Street Specialty | (0.17) | 6 per month | 0.67 | (0.09) | 1.19 | (1.04) | 3.63 | |
| CSWC | Capital Southwest | 0.24 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.67 | (1.46) | 8.65 |
Main Street Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Main price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Main using various technical indicators. When you analyze Main charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Main Street Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Main Street stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Main Street Capital, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Main Street based on analysis of Main Street hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Main Street's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Main Street's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0519 | 0.0706 | 0.0534 | Price To Sales Ratio | 7.52 | 8.31 | 9.66 |
Story Coverage note for Main Street
The number of cover stories for Main Street depends on current market conditions and Main Street's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Main Street is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Main Street's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Main Street Short Properties
Main Street's future price predictability will typically decrease when Main Street's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Main Street Capital often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Main Street's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Main Street's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 81.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 60.1 M |
Check out Main Street Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Main Street. If investors know Main will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Main Street listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.139 | Dividend Share 2.88 | Earnings Share 5.53 | Revenue Per Share 6.175 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.11 |
The market value of Main Street Capital is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Main that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Main Street's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Main Street's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Main Street's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Main Street's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Main Street's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Main Street is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Main Street's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.