BASF SE (Germany) Price Prediction
| BAS Stock | 42.42 0.36 0.86% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
42
Oversold | Overbought |
Using BASF SE hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of BASF SE from the perspective of BASF SE response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in BASF SE to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying BASF because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
BASF SE after-hype prediction price | EUR 42.06 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
BASF |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of BASF SE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
BASF SE After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of BASF SE at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in BASF SE or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of BASF SE, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
BASF SE Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting BASF SE's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on BASF SE's historical news coverage. BASF SE's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 40.20 and 43.92, respectively. We have considered BASF SE's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
BASF SE is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of BASF SE is based on 3 months time horizon.
BASF SE Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as BASF SE is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading BASF SE backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with BASF SE, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 1.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
42.42 | 42.06 | 0.00 |
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BASF SE Hype Timeline
BASF SE is currently traded for 42.42on XETRA Stock Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. BASF is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on BASF SE is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 42.42. About 28.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.91. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. BASF SE has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.61. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.7. The firm last dividend was issued on the 28th of April 2023. BASF SE had 2:1 split on the 27th of June 2008. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out BASF SE Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.BASF SE Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to BASF SE's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict BASF SE's future price movements. Getting to know how BASF SE's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how BASF SE may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 2T9A | TRAINLINE PLC LS | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.33 | 0.15 | 4.52 | (2.44) | 15.43 | |
| 62XA | BROADSTNET LEADL 00025 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.15 | (0.06) | 2.48 | (2.41) | 9.04 | |
| COA1 | COMBA TELECOM SYST | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 15.38 | |
| ISHA | INTERSHOP Communications Aktiengesellschaft | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.14 | 0.02 | 4.22 | (4.19) | 12.64 | |
| NRSA | NTG Nordic Transport | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.81 | (0.01) | 3.11 | (2.63) | 12.73 | |
| 8L8 | Liberty Broadband | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.80 | 0.12 | 3.65 | (2.75) | 34.61 | |
| BAC | Verizon Communications | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.23 | 0.07 | 2.41 | (1.83) | 7.53 | |
| EV9 | Entravision Communications | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.56 | 0.08 | 5.05 | (5.22) | 17.95 |
BASF SE Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine BASF price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for BASF using various technical indicators. When you analyze BASF charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About BASF SE Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of BASF SE stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as BASF SE, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of BASF SE based on analysis of BASF SE hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to BASF SE's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to BASF SE's related companies.
Story Coverage note for BASF SE
The number of cover stories for BASF SE depends on current market conditions and BASF SE's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that BASF SE is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about BASF SE's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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BASF SE Short Properties
BASF SE's future price predictability will typically decrease when BASF SE's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of BASF SE often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential BASF SE's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BASF SE's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 893.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.7 B |
Additional Tools for BASF Stock Analysis
When running BASF SE's price analysis, check to measure BASF SE's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BASF SE is operating at the current time. Most of BASF SE's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BASF SE's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BASF SE's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BASF SE to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.