Novagold Resources Stock Price Prediction
| NG Stock | CAD 5.05 0.02 0.40% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
49
Oversold | Overbought |
Using NovaGold Resources hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of NovaGold Resources from the perspective of NovaGold Resources response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in NovaGold Resources to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying NovaGold because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
NovaGold Resources after-hype prediction price | CAD 5.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
NovaGold |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NovaGold Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NovaGold Resources After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of NovaGold Resources at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in NovaGold Resources or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of NovaGold Resources, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
NovaGold Resources Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting NovaGold Resources' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on NovaGold Resources' historical news coverage. NovaGold Resources' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.73 and 8.29, respectively. We have considered NovaGold Resources' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
NovaGold Resources is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of NovaGold Resources is based on 3 months time horizon.
NovaGold Resources Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NovaGold Resources is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NovaGold Resources backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NovaGold Resources, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 3.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
5.05 | 5.01 | 0.79 |
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NovaGold Resources Hype Timeline
NovaGold Resources is now traded for 5.05on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. NovaGold is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 5.01. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -0.79%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.14%. The volatility of related hype on NovaGold Resources is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.05. About 26.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.2. NovaGold Resources last dividend was issued on the 28th of June 1999. The entity had 1:10 split on the 17th of December 1997. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be uncertain. Check out NovaGold Resources Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.NovaGold Resources Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to NovaGold Resources' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict NovaGold Resources' future price movements. Getting to know how NovaGold Resources' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how NovaGold Resources may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CG | Centerra Gold | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.96 | (4.33) | 12.85 | |
| AGI | Alamos Gold | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.83 | (0.05) | 3.33 | (3.26) | 12.44 | |
| MAG | MAG Silver Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.16 | 0.08 | 5.30 | (3.65) | 13.78 | |
| SEA | Seabridge Gold | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.31 | (5.05) | 17.56 | |
| ELD | Eldorado Gold Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.38 | (4.94) | 12.07 |
NovaGold Resources Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine NovaGold price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NovaGold using various technical indicators. When you analyze NovaGold charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About NovaGold Resources Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of NovaGold Resources stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as NovaGold Resources, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of NovaGold Resources based on analysis of NovaGold Resources hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to NovaGold Resources's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to NovaGold Resources's related companies.
Story Coverage note for NovaGold Resources
The number of cover stories for NovaGold Resources depends on current market conditions and NovaGold Resources' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that NovaGold Resources is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about NovaGold Resources' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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NovaGold Resources Short Properties
NovaGold Resources' future price predictability will typically decrease when NovaGold Resources' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of NovaGold Resources often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential NovaGold Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NovaGold Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 334.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 125.7 M |
Check out NovaGold Resources Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in NovaGold Stock, please use our How to Invest in NovaGold Resources guide.You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.